That better not get called off!!!
Messus Huang and I are flying in Friday arvo and out Monday . . . all going well . . . and we expect to be entertained by the Muddy Bottoms, dammit! She’s as big a fan of you guys as she is Alleycats pizzas.
HG
What is the site addy that displays the map with the pretty colours showing the typhoon categories and path?
I can’t seem to find it anywhere. I think Dragonbones was displaying some images from that site. It’s the best one I’ve seen since I haven’t been able to get onto the Joint Typhoon Warning Center site.
Try some of these:
forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/
wunderground.com/tropical/tr … 00713.html
hurricanezone.net/west-pacif … etins.html
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
wunderground.com/tropical/
www1.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rms … pical.html
cwb.gov.tw/V5e/index.htm
cheunghy.com/shared/tc/
For wind fields go to forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/ then on the right go to Wind Fields and the approx time to impact, or open the JTWC site if you can.
For the multicolor path coded by intensity go to forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/, click on the tiny colored dot in the W. Pacific where the storm is, and repeat this to open the page once or twice, then click on the storm name to open the final image.
For the agreement between path forecasts by different agencies, go to cheunghy.com/shared/tc/?name= then select the storm name and click View Track (thanks damafen!).
That’s the one I was looking for. Thanks. Quick on the draw.
P.S. Looks like it’s going to be a big one. Listed as a category 4 right now.
Here’s an auto-updating link from JTWC:
and a screencap from another site in case the updating link breaks:
The forecast has nudged closer to Taipei and the period of cat 4 intensity has been lengthened.
Looks like a close call, but a miss.
looks like a direct hit is coming doesnt it?
I’m flying out on Sat afternoon. I hope I get away.
I predict a cat 4 (possibly 5) directly on the northern tip of N.Taiwan. I think Sunday will be the worst. Buckle up and store in the goodies. This will be at least a two day ride.Time for a Forumosa sleepover party! PM and we can work it out. Lots of space and a well stocked bar. (but you gotta help).
cat 4 or cat 5 ??? !!! Thats no joke
I dont get something…
People are saying…“looks like its a miss” because the eye isnt passing directly over Taiwan. But the eye is the calm part, a break in the storm. It is the big white swirly clouds of death that you should be worried about, and those will definately be swirling over Taipei…so what gives, am I right or wrong?
Does the eye of the storm have to pass over Taipei to get a day typhoon day issued? If so, why?
yes the eye of the storm is actually calm and clear sky-ed.
the area immediately around the eye has the strongest winds normally. But the most rain is often on the outskirts.
TAipei will have a typhoon day off (except if it falls on the weekend) if the eye is anywhere near Taipei.
LIke within 200 miles I would venture
I predict that Taipei and Yilan will be given the day off on Saturday and the typhoon will then swerve south and hit Taichung right in the chest, but we won’t be given a day off because it wasn’t predicted and will all have to drive to school right through it while Taipei enjoys their calm sunny day off.
Like last time.
haha . a bit cynical are we? But you could well be right tho 
A binge too far?
Back in Taipei this weekend I very much doubt my body could cope with the extra burden giving the posse one extra day off on Monday would do to my system. I’ve taken Moinday off here in HK so I could sort crap out back in Taipei, not to sit around Carnegies with a motley collection of bleary eyed mates all day slowly munching brunchy and watching all the sweet young things flying past, although now I think of it . . .
HG
Er, no – that would be a direct hit. You might want to readTHIS INFO on typhoons. The centerline of the forecast path in the pictures just before your post represent the center of the eye, and yes, that just misses Taipei in the forecast of the moment, but the storm is big. Having the eye nearly hit means having the storm directly hit. The graphs that only show the forecast path error circles (dotted white circles), like this one, are misleading:
Those circles just mean the center of the storm could end up anywhere in that area; but the color coding of the centerline to represent storm intensity is useful, as is the color coded windspeed and intensity chart which accompanies it.
The ones that show the wind radii circles (pink circles with funky notch), like the below, are representing the size of the storm in terms of wind intensity:
EDIT: Damafen’s 2nd pic below, at forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/t … 17W_5H.png, is similar info.
That is more valuable in terms of getting a rough idea how bad the winds might be where you are. The intensity of the storm goes up as the inner radii get larger, and if the path takes those inner radii, especially the innermost of three, over you, then that’s essentially a direct hit and a dangerous situation. That JTWC map is my fave, but the site is hard to open (many people can’t access it) which is why some of us routinely repost the pics. This site mirrors the pic when typhoon strength is reached, btw.
Now, look at the size of Taiwan and the storm cloud size in this pic, and compare it to that centerline path once again, and I think you’ll see it’s a direct hit:
This forecast actually has the eye passing over Taipei proper. A bullseye!
Finally, note that the intensity has risen to a 5 for the period immediately preceding the hit. Wind speeds are forecast to gust up to 170 knots during the cat 5 period, which means 170 x 1.157 = 197mph = x 1.61 = 317 kph. That’s a whopper!
Projected paths:
Wind fields for early Sunday
CWB just updated its info:
Oh shit. So this one is pretty much a certainty now for spoiling the weekend?