Typhoon 2012

:ohreally:[/quote]

A year of “Life in Hualian” = 360 days of tranquility and 5 days of sheer terror![/quote]

Sounds like a good excuse to spend 5 days or so per year in Taichung! The mountains protect us pretty well :slight_smile:

:ohreally:[/quote]

I was referring to the “Korea” part.
Moreover, I wouldn’t go around wishing for anyone to be hit by one of those things.
As a Hualian resident living on the oceanfront who has been hit several times, I can testify to their destructive power. Ever have your roof blown off, or your car flipped upsidedown by one? I have the pictures…
They scare the piss out of me! :astonished:

A year of “Life in Hualian” = 360 days of tranquility and 5 days of sheer terror![/quote]

Do share the pictures. :astonished:

Sunny, calm, blue skies.

I don’t yet know how to post pictures on Forumosa. I’m not a fanatical blogger. Care to assist?

as you are no doubt well aware, so I’m clarifying it for the newbies, high pressure pushed in front of typhoons…1-2 days before a typhoon is great for a bike ride

cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/satellite/Sat_EA.htm

I use flickr and imgur -last one is great as it takes gifs.

Explanation here:

[quote]Q: How do I add an image to a post?

A: To post an image, you need to find it on the web or upload it to the web first, for example via ImageShack.com or Flickr (which are free). You’ll then copy and paste the uploaded pic’s web address (URL) into your Forumosa post, highlight the pasted URL, and click the “Img” button below the Subject line window (2nd from right). This should bracket your pic’s address in , like bookends. If that fails, you may instead type these bookends manually.

IMPORTANT NOTES: 1) Pornographic and sexually explicit pictures, including cartoons, are strictly prohibited on Forumosa, and are cause for banning. 2) Please exercise caution when posting pictures, as other viewers may open the page at work or in the presence of sensitive company. Be sure to use obvious NSFW (not safe for work) labels and/or emoticons, including in the subject line if appropriate, when posting such material. 3) Please do not post overly wide pictures, as these disrupt the text on the page, forcing subsequent readers to use the horizontal scroll bar when reading each line of text in other posts on the page. Overly wide pictures may be removed at the moderators’ discretion.[/quote]

[quote]kage wrote:
2. Flickr
I have never figured out how to post pictures from Flickr.

move through the various options for linking to get only the “static” address for the jpg. then select only the image address, beginning at Http:// and ending with .jpg , and then paste that into the forumosa reply panel or the avatar link bar. you may get better presentation reults in a reply post if you hihghlight the address of the picture and then click the image tag icon, so it gets surrounded with tags.[/quote]

Thanks for the helpful instructions.
Guess that I’m SOL, as I don’t use any “upload pics to web” sites.

wunderground.com/tropical/tr … 5_sat.html

new one forming on the left, and coming straight for us, not sure if it’s a typhoon though

That’s Tropical Depression Talim, and is predicted to come right at us. Anybody’s guess if it’ll make it, and if it’ll be a typhoon when it hits.
It’d be nice to have all those snug in the beds Taiwan West Coast ex-pats get a taste of one. Ha!

TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE SCS.
DURING THIS PERIOD FAVORABLE SSTS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TD06W TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING.
THE STR TO THE EAST WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALLOWING FOR THE TRACK SPEED TO INCREASE BY TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 72,
TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
THE TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUESTIONABLE,
BUT CURRENTLY THE FORECAST HAS TD 06W TRACKING INTO THE STRAIT BY TAU 72.
SSTS DROP OFF MARKEDLY WITHIN THE STRAIT (26 CELSIUS) WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER STRONGER DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU48.
HOWEVER, PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CONTINENTAL ASIA WILL IMPACT TD 06W BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST AS IT RELIES HEAVILY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STR,
AND IF THE TIMING IS NOT CORRECT, TD 06W WILL HAVE MORE TIME WITHIN THE SCS TO INTENSIFY.

SCS= South China Sea
SSTS = Sea Surface Temperatures
TAU = Time After Update
STR = Sub-Tropical Ridge

Gotta love the lower table on the right. CPA (Closest Predicted Approach) for TAIPEI reads 9NM… That’s pretty much right on top of your head! :laughing:

BTW: It’s beautiful, sunny with broken white cumulus clouds in Hualien this morning. The 15-18 foot waves are exploding 50ft higher than the 30ft seawall. At dawn (~5AM), I got a pic of the crescent Moon with Venus and Jupiter(?) in close proximity right above a wave splashing over the wall and a backlit squal line ~20 miles out over the ocean. Nice!

Ehem, any conjetures regarding the possibility of those two typhoons joining forces and making our lives miserable? Rain, it seems we’ll have a lot…

They might possibly join, but the prediction is that they won’t, at least not over Taiwan.

But who knows for sure?
cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm

Naw. They are so far apart and headed in the same basic direction, like two trains in Taiwan on the same track, that they won’t have any interaction at all.
However, the “Monsoon Track” out of the SCS seems to be able to hold up for a long period of time. Steady rain? Most likely.

The JTWC predicts 55-kt. winds with gusts to 70 when the eye hits SW Taiwan around 20/00 (8 am Wed our time). That’s a tropical storm in English, and a light typhoon in Chinese. The worry is the rain, though.

Right, and a big worry right now I think.

I’m not a meteorologist but I think it’s possible that Talim pushed guchol away from Taiwan. Luckily we won’t get the cat 3/4 storm that Guchol is expected to be but they are predicting a lot of rain from Talim. K Town is expected to get 50mm’s of rain on Tuesday, 75mm’s on Wednesday and 50mm’s on thursday. I guess I’ll go to the store tonight for some snacks just in case we get another day off.

I repeat, in its first warning and prognostication, JTWS says:
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST AS IT RELIES HEAVILY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STR,
AND IF THE TIMING IS NOT CORRECT, TD 06W WILL HAVE MORE TIME WITHIN THE SCS TO INTENSIFY.
(Go to page 7 of this thread to read the whole post. Thanks.)

One Chinese report I’ve read suggests that, since Talim/Taili is likely to be a “穿心颱” (one that crosses the center of Taiwan), it could be as dangerous as Morakot. As everyone who was here in 2009 must well remember, Morakot was Taiwan’s deadliest typhoon since records began, dropping record amounts of rainfall and causing roughly 650 deaths, even though it was “only” a tropical storm.

Here’s an interesting list of the ten “wettest” typhoons in Taiwan and the levels of rainfall recorded where the most rain fell. It’s notable that more than half of these big wetters have occurred since the turn of the century:

  1. Morakat 2009: 3060 mm in Alishan, Chiayi
  2. Nari 2001: 2319 mm in Wulai, New Taipei
  3. Flossie 1969: 2162 mm in Beitou, Taipei
  4. Herb 1996: 1987 mm in Alishan, Chiayi
  5. Carla 1967: 1672 mm in Dongshan, Yilan
  6. Sinlaku 2008: 1611 mm in Heping, Taichung
  7. Haitang 2005: 1561 mm in Sandimen, Pingtung
  8. Aere 2004: 1546 mm in Miaoli County
  9. Parma 2009: 1500 mm in Yilan County
  10. Lynn 1987: 1497 mm in Beitou, Taipei

Not mentioned is disasters caused by non-typhoon or things that came in the wake of a typhoon, for example in 2004 around July (I forgot the name of that typhoon) where the typhoon did minimal damage but the rain that came afterwards did far more damage. In Taiwan the biggest fear is rainfall, not wind. So a Cat 4/5 typhoon is unlikely to do much damage but a light one can do more damage due to it bringing too much rainfall.

A little more on LongWang.
My wife and I had just relocated to an 8th floor two-story apartment overlooking the ocean and gotten settled in over the previous month. LongWang hit in the evening and carried on throughout the night. The sheet metal roof on the 2nd floor was rising about half a foot and settling back with each gust of high wind, as if it was breathing. Eventually, the windward corner started to peel away. I donned my scooter helmet and went upstairs to retrieve items now being blown off the shelves. The first item that I happened to spot and stopped to pick up was an old paperback book I’d brought from the USA. I put it in my hand and turned it over the read the cover. Its title??? “The Perfect Storm”, of course. I kid you NOT!

LongWang at 12 hours out, doesn’t look very big, does it?

That sucker was so tall and powerful that the bottom half ground around on top of Hualien for more than 12 hours, while the top half went straight over the Central Mountains and reformed on the other side. The radar record will confirm my statements.

Jesus, I’m flying to Kinmen tomorrow and then taking the ferry across to Xiamen. I really hope I outrun/sail this thing.