The depression is likely to move closer to the Philippines over the next few days, with forecasters in Europe and the United States saying there is a 20% chance it will turn into Tropical Storm Sanvu, according to meteorologist Daniel Wu (吳德榮).
He pointed out that from 1911 to 2022, Taiwan had only seen one typhoon hitting as early as April, making the likelihood of a tropical storm this month extremely limited.
Still too early to call, most predictions let it stay out at sea, and move northwards into the nothing.
Water temperatures and pressure systems are all over the place right now, so it’s path and strength is very uncertain, and can change overnight.
In the meantime its clear that a stronger than average El Nino is developing rapidly.
Years with a strong El Nino also had stronger, and more than average quantity of typhoons, 1997, and 2017.
More typhoons, more chance to be hit …