US Election Polls and Predictions

Strong swing to Obama now that the convention kool-aid is wearing off…

electoral-vote.com/
evstrength.blogspot.com/
fivethirtyeight.com/
intrade.com/

The last two are the best. I wonder if as a US citizen, I’m allowed to bet. Or if my wife is now that she applied for a green card. I can vote from abroad… can I bet from abroad?

The similiarities between 2004 Bush/Kerry match up are similar and we all know how that turned out. btw, intrade got that one right when all the polls had it wrong.

Here’s what The Spread has on the 2008 US Presidential Race.

Over at Sports Book they have it at sportsbook.com/livesports/indexm … ame=exotic

Screw the polls…just vote.

Polls are a dime a dozen and mostly confirm what the group paying for the poll taking wants to see. Ergo the widely varying veracity of ‘exit polling.’

Having said that, local newspaper polls are a bit more interesting for 2 reasons - The newspaper media is in its death throes…and they know it. And after the election they still have to sell papers. People remember in their communities what their local paper said…remember it for a long time.

Ohio is a “Battle Ground” state. With 20 electoral votes up for grabs it plays a key role in the POTUS election.

fro the Toledo Blade:
Ohio survey gives John McCain 6-point edge over Barack Obama
“n the battle for Ohio’s 20 electoral votes, Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a 48 percent to 42 percent lead over Democratic opponent Barack Obama — but with lots of time left in a volatile race, according to the first Ohio Newspaper Poll.”

Overall a pretty good article. PA and Indiana are also leaning towards McCain/Palin. Voter fraud via ‘community organizers - read ACORN’ being the wildcard in a number of areas.

You’ve been listening to too many Rush Bimbaugh podcasts TC. That poll you cite was old and getting older.

“A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama has moved to a six point lead over Sen. John McCain, 51% to 46%. Compared to a similar poll two weeks ago, Obama is up 4, McCain is down 4.”
politicalwire.com/archives/2008/ … ginia.html

"There is little change in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking results covering Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, as Barack Obama leads John McCain by a four percentage point margin among registered voters, 48% to 44%.

You can have Indiana. But forget about Pennsylvania, Virginia, and probably even Ohio.

[quote]There seems to be quite a bit of gloom over a SurveyUSA poll of Virginia that puts Obama up by 6 percent.

(I note SUSA has Obama ahead, 49 percent to 45 percent in “Central Virginia,” a sub-sample of about 200 voters.)

No offense to the fine folks at Survey USA, but I decided to go back and check their last poll in Virginia’s 2006 Senate race. They had Jim Webb ahead of George Allen, 52-46. The final results were Webb’s 49.6 percent to Allen’s 49.2 percent, a margin of 9,329 votes out of 2.37 million cast. SUSA had the state’s marriage amendment polling at 42 percent support,and it ended up passing with 57.1 percent of the vote.[/quote]

I wouldn’t be so sure yet, it’s still all very fluid at the moment. MSM polls also have this bad tendency to overrepresent Democrats in such polls.

Political Fallout of Financial Crisis Helps Democrats

A new CNN poll shows that voters blame the Republicans rather than the Democrats for the financial crisis by 2 to 1. Forty-seven percent blame the Republicans, 24% blame the Democrats, 20% blame both equally and 8% say neither party is to blame. With the economy front and center now, this is an ominous development for John McCain and also downticket Republicans. The poll also shows Obama with a 10-point lead on the question of who would handle the economy better. Also problematic for McCain is that 53% said he will carry out George Bush’s policies, which are toxic (Bush’s approval is now at 19%).

[quote=“Toe Tag”]Political Fallout of Financial Crisis Helps Democrats

A new CNN poll shows that voters blame the Republicans rather than the Democrats for the financial crisis by 2 to 1. Forty-seven percent blame the Republicans, 24% blame the Democrats, 20% blame both equally and 8% say neither party is to blame. With the economy front and center now, this is an ominous development for John McCain and also downticket Republicans. The poll also shows Obama with a 10-point lead on the question of who would handle the economy better. Also problematic for McCain is that 53% said he will carry out George Bush’s policies, which are toxic (Bush’s approval is now at 19%).[/quote]
The Republican spin machine is in full gear. There’s stories in Bloomberg, WSJ, and FOX news about how it was the Democrats that wouldn’t let the Republican controlled congress pass the regulation act in 2005, led by none other than Barak Obama. And then in the next breath they’ll start talking about how Obama has never accomplished anything.

Bloomberg, WSJ, and FOX, along with the Moonie’s Washington Times… its funny to hear the Repulicans whine about some supposed liberal media.

Nice to see Obama rip McWaffle a new one in the first debate.

gallup.com/poll/110740/Gallu … -Lead.aspx

No doubt there is some spin… but there is also some truth.

I guess you just gotta pick through it all and find it.


Pretty clear that McCain’s debate stunt hurt him badly. People are making up their minds. I suggest the Republicans pack it in, and get ready to whine and spin and feel sorry for themselves for the next 4 years of total Democrat Senate, House, and Executive branch. Though cleverly the Republicans have managed to screw up the Judicial branch, mire us in hopeless losing wars, and ruin the economy to slow us down.

A bit more on some of those polls being promoted as indicative of the ‘publics’ opinions…Which public? one might ask.

[color=red]Busted… Foreigners Cast 80% of Votes in MSNBC’s Online Debate Poll [/color]

Is that really the best you have got? Of course anyone can vote in an online poll, and many people outside the US take a great deal of interest in the election. Your point is?

Meanwhile surveys of Americans show that Obama “won” the debate:

[quote]UPDATED WITH FINAL NUMBERS CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.

Thirty-nine percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-four percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-seven percent saw it as a draw.[/quote]
cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/26 … 2028.shtml

[quote]A national poll of people who watched the first presidential debate suggests that Barack Obama came out on top, but there was overwhelming agreement that both Obama and John McCain would be able to handle the job of president if elected.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey is not a measurement of the views of all Americans, since only people who watched the debate were questioned and the audience included more Democrats than Republicans.

Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Obama did the better job in Friday night’s debate, while 38 percent said John McCain did better.[/quote]
edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09 … index.html

[quote=“Mawvellous”][quote=“TainanCowboy”]A bit more on some of those polls being promoted as indicative of the ‘publics’ opinions…Which public? one might ask.[/quote]Is that really the best you have got?[/quote]It is not a matter of "what I’ve got’, this is not about me. This is a matter of analyzing how a poll results were obtained. Do you understand that primary part? Once this is known, one can deduce the correlation of the applicability of information gathered to the results. Who gives a bother if Brazil wants Obama? This is a US Presidential election and some segments are using these poll results to say they illustrate US voter opinions. This is now shown to be patently false. More clear to you now?[quote=“Mawvellous”]"… results of a Of course anyone can vote in an online poll, and many people outside the US take a great deal of interest in the election. Your point is?[/quote]Re-read my answer above.

[quote=“Mawvellous”]Meanwhile surveys of Americans show that Obama “won” the debate:[/quote]Some do…some don’t and most call it about a tie.
Its only the first debate. It would be im-prudent to make much of it either way.

Which surveys of Americans suggest that McCain “won” the debate? I haven’t seen any.

You know that the polls of American voters suggest that Obama’s performance was better received than McCain’s. The fact that non-Americans voted in a separate online poll is neither surprising, nor relevant-I suggest you raised it as a cover to explain away McCain’s recent poor polling numbers.

[quote=“TainanCowboy”][quote=“Mawvellous”][quote=“TainanCowboy”]A bit more on some of those polls being promoted as indicative of the ‘publics’ opinions…Which public? one might ask.[/quote]Is that really the best you have got?[/quote]It is not a matter of "what I’ve got’, this is not about me. This is a matter of analyzing how a poll results were obtained. Do you understand that primary part? Once this is known, one can deduce the correlation of the applicability of information gathered to the results. Who gives a bother if Brazil wants Obama? This is a US Presidential election and some segments are using these poll results to say they illustrate US voter opinions. This is now shown to be patently false. More clear to you now?[quote=“Mawvellous”]"… results of a Of course anyone can vote in an online poll, and many people outside the US take a great deal of interest in the election. Your point is?[/quote]Re-read my answer above.

[quote=“Mawvellous”]Meanwhile surveys of Americans show that Obama “won” the debate:[/quote]Some do…some don’t and most call it about a tie.
Its only the first debate. It would be im-prudent to make much of it either way.[/quote]

[quote=“Tainan Cowboy”][quote=“Mawvellous”]Meanwhile surveys of Americans show that Obama “won” the debate:[/quote]Some do…some don’t and most call it about a tie.
Its only the first debate. It would be im-prudent to make much of it either way.[/quote]
I can’t decide if its sad or funny to see you clutching at straws like this. McCain’s convention bump is gone. The first debate about foreign policy was supposed to help him. The post-debate polls are starting to kick in and McCain is losing even more ground. Let’s take another look at this I just can’t get enough of it…

"Here’s the long and short of it for John McCain: Barack Obama has as large a lead in the election as he’s held all year. But there is much less time left on the clock than there was during other Obama periods of strength, such as in February, mid-June or immediately following the Democratic convention. This is a very difficult combination of circumstances for him.

On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.

This lead might not sound like that much, but it’s fairly significant: we’ve been through two conventions and one debate, voters have dug their heels in, and Obama’s position in the Electoral College is extremely robust. Trimming away a 4-5 point lead isn’t that difficult over the summer months – in fact, McCain accomplished exactly that in July and August – but it’s a steeper hill to climb after Labor Day. And if anything, our projection may be lowballing Obama slightly, as the aforementioned national tracking data (which incorporates one day of post-debate interviewing) has Obama’s lead in the range of 5-8 points; the model will need Obama to hold those numbers for another day or two before it catches up to them."

Wow next debate they deploy their secret weapon, Sarah Palin… :roflmao:

Here is my next prediction: during the month of November, we’ll have confirmation that Republicans are sore losers.

The evil MSM are promulgating these faulty poll numbers to help the Obama campaign win the election! :wink: Perception, unfortunately, is everything in these campaigns - and the perception seems to be that Obama won the debate, and is winning in the polls. This will have an effect on voters. Seriously, if the campaign can maintain this perception (or realtity), they will win the election in Novemember.