For sure, TC has a point in that outside the US, and certainly in the UK the overwhelming majority are in favor of Obama. However, just check out the bookies. easyodds.com/compareodds/spe … 234-5.html
Theres about 20 or so bookmakers there, and it looks pretty grim for the McCain campaign. Odds of 3:1 or more, Obama on the other hand , you'll be hard to get more than 30 or 40 cents return for a dollar. I'll be interested and pleased to watch those odds lengthen as we approach the election.
I’d take 3-1. It’s way too close and way too early to be so confident. There are some very powerful people who stand to lose a lot if Obama wins. There will be a few surprises in October.
Not all momentum manifests itself in a candidate converting undecided voters, or flipping voters from the other candidate. Instead, sometimes it looks more like this:
This graph is lifted from today’s release (PDF) of the Diageo-Hotline poll. Note the progression of the blue line … where as 60 percent of Democrats felt enthusiastic about their candidate before, that figure is up to 69 percent now.
There are hints of this pattern in other surveys. Rasmussen reports that 40 percent of voters now have a very favorable view of Barack Obama, the highest that this number has been all year, and an improvement from 36 percent in their last release before the debate. And voters feel safer about Obama. In today’s ABC News poll, which actually had McCain gaining back some ground overall, 55 percent of voters said they considered Obama a “safe” choice, as opposed to 50 percent for McCain. In mid-June, the last time that ABC had asked this question, McCain led in this category 57-50.[/quote] fivethirtyeight.com/
I predict that the military will claim to have captured Osama Bin Laden and will show video of it, about a day before the voting booths open. After the election, a retraction will be made, stating that gosh, it had sure LOOKED a lot like Osama at the time…
I predicted Obama with 330 electoral votes awhile ago. FiveThirtyEight.com now has him pegged at 330.6, and moving up.
Can I now bet against myself? I think I sold Obama short by a good margin.
Barack opened up a whole new can o’ whoop ass in that first debate. pwned.
[quote]A new Quinnipiac University poll finds Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has opened up a 15-point lead in Pennsylvania over Republican nominee John McCain.
The poll was conducted after the first debate between the two candidates Sept. 26.
Prior to the debate, Obama was ahead of McCain 49 percent to 43 percent. But the post debate numbers show Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent.
“It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swing so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania.”
Since 1960, no one has been elected to the White House without winning two of these three key states, the Quinnipiac pollsters said.
McCain “has his work cut out for him,” Brown said. “There does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century.”
Obama has been campaigning across Pennsylvania in recent weeks. He failed to win the Pennsylvania primary in April, losing to then-rival Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.[/quote]
Now, to be fair, more has happened other than the debate. McCain’s insistence that the economy is sound, for instance, while it is obviously imploding, and the public realization that Palin is A) incapable of speaking coherently on important issues without a teleprompter, and B) being hidden from the media.
More has happened than the debate, but remember, what these polls are finally revealing is, what happened on the day or two just after the debate. So any “more that happened” would have to be during those days. Now, check this out, a thing of beauty:
McSame losing Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio… Florida… Virginia… Even Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina are up for grabs now! The wheels have completely come off the campaign wagon. Its turning into a rout. Can’t say I expect Palin’s VP debate to shore things up… the tongue jut is probably not going to cut any ice either fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/tongue-jut.html
“With the first set of tracking polls out to incorporate at least one full day of post-debate interviewing, there is no indication that John McCain and Sarah Palin have made progress in closing their gap with Barack Obama. In fact, Obama ticked upward in three of the four national tracking polls that published today, although he lost a point in Rasmussen. In addition, Ipsos/McClatchy has come out with a poll showing that the debate moved undecideds slightly toward the Obama ticket, confirming the results of most of the snap polling conducted on Thursday evening.”
Barack Obama has risen to his highest-ever level in both our electoral college and popular vote projections, principally on the strength of his commanding lead in the national tracking polls. Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline each have Obama ahead by 7 points, and Research 2000 has him up by 12 (Battleground, which has generally had the most conservative numbers for Obama, does not publish on the weekend). Whether or not the McCain campaign’s new round of attacks will have a significant impact on Obama’s numbers we shall see, but they’re going to have to knock him off a fairly high pedestal.
There is state polling out today in Minnesota, Colorado and Ohio. In Minnesota, the Star Tribune has Obama ahead by 18, quite a contrast from SurveyUSA’s contemporaneous poll which had McCain up by 1. Yesterday, I discussed the disparities between these two polls on the senate side, and it is not surprising that the presidential numbers have followed suit. Our model projects Obama to win Minnesota by 8-9 points, roughly in between the SurveyUSA and Star Tribune estimates.
In Colorado, Mason-Dixon – polling for the Denver Post – has the race tied at 44-44. Mason-Dixon’s polls have had a statistically significantly Republican lean thus far this cycle, and so it’s not terribly surprising to see their numbers a couple of points to the McCain side of other recent polling of the state. Nevertheless, there have now been a couple of different polls coming out in Colorado – ARG, Ciruli, and last Monday’s Rasmussen number – suggesting that the race there may have tightened a bit.
Lastly, in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch has Barack Obama ahead by 7. It’s a good number for Obama, but not one that should be taken very seriously, as the Dispatch poll is conducted by mail and has not been very reliable in the past. Still, the notion that Ohio was somehow immune from Obama’s recent bounce is rapidly losing credibility.
[/quote]http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-105.html
[quote=“Toe Tag”][quote]Today’s Polls, 10/5
Lastly, in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch has Barack Obama ahead by 7. It’s a good number for Obama, but not one that should be taken very seriously, as the Dispatch poll is conducted by mail and has not been very reliable in the past. Still, the notion that Ohio was somehow immune from Obama’s recent bounce is rapidly losing credibility.
[/quote]http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-105.html[/quote]
That Dispatch poll is probably within a reasonable margin of the truth; The RCP poll average is 3 up, and the Dispatch poll has a +/- 2 margin, so that doesn’t leave them very far apart.
BTW, the Dispatch has strongest support coming from northeastern Ohio, with a 22% lead there.
These are encouraging figures, but the election is still a full month away. There are 24 days remaining for an October Surprise. There are 28 days remaining for dirty tricks. The phrase “by hook or crook” comes to mind: there’s no depth to which the Republicans won’t stoop to win this election.
I remain guardedly optimistic, but will do no victory dance, light no Cuban cigars and pop no champagne corks until it is confirmed beyond possibility of error that Obama is the next president. Anything can happen between now and then.
Yup, guarded optimism is best at the moment. I’m still expecting a rumor that Osama has been captured or killed, strategically spread a day or two before the election. And Palin hasn’t used an "Obama is a gay baby killer’ line yet. That could really turn the election around, ya know.
:raspberry: 
