US Election Polls and Predictions

Remember Slate’s Hillary Death Watch? When her chances of winning were down to at these levels it looked something like this:

The Goodship McCain looks to have about as much chance of making it to port.

Still 3 weeks to go, though. Anything could happen that might dupe the American people into voting Republican yet again.

Osama bin Laden could show up in shackles or in a casket, Obama could royally flub the third debate and McCain could come out shining, crazy rumors (like Obama’s dog is bin Laden’s gay lover) could be taken seriously, or al-Qaeda (which wants McCain to win) could make some kind of terror threat. Or, the Republicans could be successful in their attempts to purge Democratic-leaning voters from the voter rolls with their caging lists, or there could be Diebold flips (voting outcomes so close that a transposing of the numbers could be easily orchestrated).

Again, I’m guardedly optimistic, but given the historical lengths that Republican operatives have gone to help their candidate win, I won’t be surprised if McCain somehow ekes out a victory. I am looking forward to November 5 when I will either be ecstatic or depressed, but I will at least know the outcome.

Of those scenarios, the most likely is a new video from Bin Laden, endorsing Obama and praising him as a true Muslim brother, or some such nonsense. Bin Laden’s a clever enough tactician to know that such a statement would do McCain all kinds of good, and that McCain’s knee-jerk militarism would benefit Al Qaeda’s propaganda campaign.

Never forget the threat of a hanging chad!

HG

As I expected, the race is tight and tightening-and now the pollsters will have move towards showing that fact.

The latest Zogby poll:

[quote]
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1%

McCain slowly gains on Obama

UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain continued a slow advance on Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, moving back within three percentage points as the race begins to head down the stretch run, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

McCain now trails Obama by 2.7 points, down from the 3.9 point deficit he faced 24 hours earlier.[/quote]

There is still hope that some common sense will prevail and the experienced and honest candidate will win out over the socialist (was a member of Socialist Party-google it) office sharing (shared 3rd floor office with Ayers for 3+ years), anti-democracy (disagree with him and get massive scorn and loss of privacy-Joe, Missouri DA, etc) populist candidate loved by many who can’t see further than their justified hatred of Bush and his idiotic policies.

Neither is a good candidate, but in this case the Republicans are clearly the best of a bad bunch. :noway:

Edit: For Chris-Obama is the most truth-troubled and socialistic candidate for President there has ever been. Do a little digging-that would require you to challenge your beliefs.

The honest candidate being Obama and the socialist being McCain, of course.

McCain has been telling so many lies lately my head is spinning.

There’s a clear choice between good and bad here. Obama is the good guy. Americans: don’t be duped yet again by the GOP!

[quote=“Kea”]As I expected, the race is tight and tightening-and now the pollsters will have move towards showing that fact.

The latest Zogby poll:

[quote]
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1%

McCain slowly gains on Obama

UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain continued a slow advance on Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, moving back within three percentage points as the race begins to head down the stretch run, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

McCain now trails Obama by 2.7 points, down from the 3.9 point deficit he faced 24 hours earlier.[/quote]

There is still hope that some common sense will prevail and the experienced and honest candidate will win out over the socialist (was a member of Socialist Party-google it) office sharing (shared 3rd floor office with Ayers for 3+ years), anti-democracy (disagree with him and get massive scorn and loss of privacy-Joe, Missouri DA, etc) populist candidate loved by many who can’t see further than their justified hatred of Bush and his idiotic policies.

Neither is a good candidate, but in this case the Republicans are clearly the best of a bad bunch. :noway:

Edit: For Chris-Obama is the most truth-troubled and socialistic candidate for President there has ever been. Do a little digging-that would require you to challenge your beliefs.[/quote]

Speaking of “honest candidates” which of Bush’s “idiotic” policies does John McCain intend to reverse?

Spook: Well, when you have finished answering the rest of my post, instead of selectively ignoring everything I said on both threads, I’ll get back to you. I’ll have some free time next weekend, I hope.

[b]Meantime, here are some important things that Obama has refused to release or answer:

-state legislative office records
-earmarks from IL
-list of legal clients (Acorn, etc)
-state bar application (what name did he apply under?)
-Rezko billing records (Rezko did a suspicious land deal to get Obama his historic house (Michelle was on the board that knew of this house coming on the market) by buying a sliver of land connected to the original offer at over market price so Obama could get 300k off the house asking price
-full medical records (nose job, smoking issue)
-academic records-college transcripts (preferential treatment into Harvard, name question mark)
-funding for his college education (Iranian financier), for his trip to Pakistan (on what passport?) at a time US citizens were barred from travelling there
-clarify his relationship to Odinga (cousin according to Odinga, campaigned for him before Odinga unleashed his thugs, murdering Christians in a church)
-birth certificates (presently being sued for full version but stalling the court case-when exactly did he change from being Barry Otero?)[/b]
:wink:

Edit for the weak posts following this one:
Spook: As I said, you can answer my points first instead of obfuscating. You never answer TC’s posts, I’m sure you won’t bother to address any of the points I’ve raised-and the good thing about Barry Barrack Hussein Obama Soetoro is he just keeps giving. :bravo:

Chris: All those are things he has purposefully withheld. Interesting you don’t hold him to any standard of transparency or honesty or evidence of character or experience, yet he’s vying for President of The United States. Must be nice kool-aid you followers drink-and no, factcheck.org is not to be trusted, it’s funded by the Annenburg Foundation.
purplepeoplevote.com/2008/10/06/ … the-facts/

Forumosa on the weekends, it’s enough. No time otherwise. Bye bye.

Most are public records. They don’t need to be “released”, they’re already available.

Nose job, smoking “issue”? You’ve got to be kidding. Who cares?

Birth certificate: factcheck.org/elections-2008 … e_usa.html

How about discussing ISSUES rather than grasping at the straws of the same right-wing conspiracies that brought us the bogus Swift Boat Veterans claims and Vince Foster “murders”? Remember, those on the far right LIE. (So do those on the far left, but there ain’t too many of them around these days.)

Spook: Well, when you have finished answering the rest of my post, instead of selectively ignoring everything I said on both threads, I’ll get back to you. I’ll have some free time next weekend, I hope. . . .[/quote]

Coming up empty-handed, are you? Yes, do get back to me when you can explain why George Bush supports John McCain for president when John McCain intends to reverse his key policies.


“John McCain with President George W. Bush after Mr. Bush endorsed Mr. McCain in a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House on Wednesday, March 5th, 2008.”

I’m back… just in time for the victory dance. I don’t usually like the WSJ, but in the interests of “Fair and Balanced” I’ll quote them today…

[color=#0000BF]WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has opened up a 10-point lead over Republican opponent John McCain two weeks before the November 4 U.S. election, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Tuesday.

The poll found 52 percent of voters favor Obama compared with 42 percent for McCain, up from a 6-point Obama edge two weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The 10-point lead is the largest in the Journal/NBC poll to date and represents a steady climb for Obama since early September, when the political conventions concluded with the candidates in a statistical tie, the newspaper reported.

Fifty-five percent of voters say Palin is not qualified to be president, up from 50 percent two weeks ago.[/color]

Republicans have always been deluded, and their clutching at straws only further shows it.

Now I am pulling for 60 Democratic Senators, so the Republicans can’t fillibuster, and we can quote Bill O’Reilly at them “Shut up. Just shut up!”.

THAT’s your aspiration? You want to be just like Bill O’Reilly? :loco:

[quote=“Chris”]Still 3 weeks to go, though. Anything could happen that might dupe the American people into voting Republican yet again.

Osama bin Laden could show up in shackles or in a casket, Obama could royally flub the third debate and McCain could come out shining, crazy rumors (like Obama’s dog is bin Laden’s gay lover) could be taken seriously, or al-Qaeda (which wants McCain to win) could make some kind of terror threat. Or, the Republicans could be successful in their attempts to purge Democratic-leaning voters from the voter rolls with their caging lists, or there could be Diebold flips (voting outcomes so close that a transposing of the numbers could be easily orchestrated).

Again, I’m guardedly optimistic, but given the historical lengths that Republican operatives have gone to help their candidate win, I won’t be surprised if McCain somehow ekes out a victory. I am looking forward to November 5 when I will either be ecstatic or depressed, but I will at least know the outcome.[/quote]You might be depressed Chris, but I really can’t see them stealing this one too in light of the enormous “lead” in the polls Obama now has: freedocumentaries.org/film.php?id=234

Obama’s lead slowly eroded over the last week, but has widened again since Powell’s endorsement and the Michele Bachmann scandal.

But even just two weeks away, anything can happen. I’m not counting my chickens until they’ve hatched.

Vote fraud is a possibility. For example, I’ve heard reports of voting machines in West Virginia selecting McCain despite the voter choosing Obama.

Most of the polls showing a re-widening of Obama’s lead were taken just before the Powell endorsement, meaning that if Powell had any effect, we would see it in the polls in the upcoming 1 or 2 days.

Over at fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver seems to think that the recent tightening in the polls is due to a “dead cat bounce”. However, some real tightening in key battleground states is happening, such as FL and OH. However, one poll shows Obama leading in IN.

What I’m curious about is whether wide margin in polling will cause McCain to bring Rev Wright back into the mix.

Not fraud, just further proof that the US cannot hold an election without (technical) fuck-ups.

There is a button for each candidate, with the name at the top of it and some text below - the button for Obama is just below that of McCain and if you touch the name rather then the center of the button you may accidently press the McCain button as your finger may roll upwards (due to the angle of the screen and the way you hold your hand/arm). It’s also possible that the touchscreens were not properly calibrated. AFAIK you still need to confirm the selection, so it’s possible to correct a wrong selection if you notice the mistake.

What’s wrong with paper ballots?

Are people so lazy they can’t be bothered to mark an X on a piece of paper? Or have people gotten so lazy that they don’t even bother getting out of their cars to vote anymore?

Shhh! Don’t mention X and Obama in the same para. You’ll give Chewy ideas. Doh!

HG

It just gets better and better…

[color=#0000FF]WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama’s lead over Republican rival John McCain has grown to 12 points in the U.S. presidential race, with crucial independent and women voters increasingly moving to his side, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

With less than two weeks before the November 4 election, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in the latest three-day tracking poll…[/color]

Palin sez its in God’s hands. With a 12 point lead, all I can say is Praise Jesus!

[quote="Toe Tag"Palin sez its in God’s hands. With a 12 point lead, all I can say is Praise Jesus![/quote]

The weird thing is, I suddenly feel tempted to actually pray. That’d be cool. My god vs Palin’s god. Assuming mine wins, of course.

HG