I couldn’t believe all this big girl’s blouses who left in 96 just 'cause China was chucking a few stones. Ringside seats at the US / China game ? I mean when the two biggest bullies at school got in a fight, did you crowd round and watch roaring “de-bag ! de-bag !” or did you mince off elsewhere so you wouldn’t get into twouble ?
The question could be, “When is the right time to go?”
I mean if you are going to flee Taiwan with your tail between your legs, crying like a little schoolgirl pooping your pants, you certainly want to be out before the doo hits the fan.
So, is President Chen’s latest salvo affirming former President Lee’s “two-states” model and saying that legislation should be passed to enable the people of Taiwan to take part in a referendum on the island’s political future enough reason to hit the eject button?
Now’s too soon, for sure. Why not at least wait until the MAC chief gets back from the US – she’s being sent over to … ahem … explain the score to Washington.
I don’t envy her – it must be pretty demeaning to have to stand up and say: “Sorry guys, nothing’s changed. The president of my country is a moron who likes to flap his lips. What can I say?”
I think most people are underestimating Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. Basically, I think that with the help of U.S. 7th fleet, Taiwan-US could defeat the commies (although not as easily as people may think, with Taiwan-US suffering pretty heavy casualties, a lot heavier than desert storm).
But even without U.S. help at all, taking over Taiwan would cause China tremoudous amounts of trouble. Although the Taiwanese military may not be top notch, remember neither is China’s. If anything, the taiwanese military is better trained and equipped. They can try blockading Taiwan, but that would be ineffective considering their subpar naval competence, and the fact that Taiwan has stockpiled enough resources to last a least 1 year. Within that one year, anything abould happen. The only realistic option for China would be to take complete military control of Taiwan. The only advantage they have is numbers, and that doesn’t mean jack when attacking Taiwan. Taiwan only has to defend itself, whereas China has to get their army across the strait. Their amphibious warefare is not even close to the level where they can conduct a Normandy type landing. Yes, they have a lot of planes, but they can only send a couple hundred at most at a time, a number Taiwan can effectively counter. The missiles are pretty useless, because when a real war breaks out, they wont do enough damage. They can damage a lot of the cities’ infrastucture, but wont do to much to Taiwan’s military. Let’s say the commies do land in Taiwan, there are millions of Taiwanese reserves who can pick up guns and start shooting. No matter how indifferent people are, at that point they will be fighting for their survivial. On the other hand, what would the morale be like for commie army? They would be attacking their “own people” pretty much for no good reason. Would they really be willing to sacrifice their lives for no good cause? Also you have to take Kinmen and Matsu into consideration. It is much easier to go from Kinmen and Matsu onto China than from China to Taiwan. That means strategically speaking, the Taiwanese army on those islands could potentially do a lot of damage. Basically, if you only talk about the military, Chinese has a good chance to win but it means suffering casualties up to millions.
Now, if you take other side effects into consideration, you never know what could happen. There are close to 1 million Taiwanese in China, who knows what they would do. If a war happens, the Chinese economy is gonna tank, setting its development back maybe 10-20 years. Would China be willing to sacrifice that? China can forget about the 2008 olympics. There are many factions in the goverment, and also many people who are dissatisfied with the goverment. A war could set off riots and maybe even a revolution. The list goes on.
I was bored so just some thought.
quote:
Originally posted by aceman: I think most people are underestimating Taiwan's ability to defend itself...with the help of U.S. 7th fleet.
All the posters who said they would like to see what happens if an invasion occurs are stupid. I hope you aren’t responsible for any children.
I don’t expect China to attack under the present circumstances but if the U.S. ever gets seriously bogged down in the Middle East the odds go up considerably.
There’d probably be opportunities for foreign nationals and their immediate families to evacuate to naval vessels offshore but the extended family wouldn’t be included. That means I’d be staying.
The big question for me is what Chicom soldiers would do with U.S. nationals. My guess is internment on the mainland but there’d probably be widespread episodes of trigger-happy zealots deciding otherwise. Marriage to a U.S. citizen might also well put our wives and their families in considerable danger by marking them as collaborators.
We’d probably be faced with having to go underground in order to be near them without putting them in jeopardy. I myself would go up in the mountains and try to hook up with the likely bands of aboriginal insurgents until things blew over. My biggest problems then would be figuring out to tap into regular supplies of cold beer and dry clothes.
It would be nice to have something worth fighting for for a change though.
For those of you thinking I’m getting way ahead of myself, that was precisely the attitude of the majority of the Jewish community in pre-war Germany before the Nazi storm engulfed them.
Tripwire aren’t you reliving a few scenes from “The Beach.”
Sandman is probably right, but don’t you think Taiwan would just give up when the first missiles started landing, the power and water supplies were cut off, and life started to become distinctly uncomfortable.
Life as a foreigner would become very difficult, if not plain dangerous on the street. There will be alot of resentment toward all kinds of foreigners. It will be a no win situation for any of us. People will be pissed off at you for not supporting independence or for distilling it. In their desperation and frustration, they will likely become violent toward the foreign community. Suddenly your foreign face will be a liability, rather than an advantage.
I don’t know anything about the ROC military fighting spirit or the will to resist of the Taiwanese population. I hope it’s there if it’s ever needed.
I’ve been cold, dirty, wet, bone-tired and scared to death all at once before though and it wasn’t anything remotely like a movie. It was more like an out of body experience in the upper reaches of Hell. It impressed upon me though how thin this veneer we call ‘everyday life’ is and how important it is not to rely on it too much.
quote:
Originally posted by wolf_reinhold: ...President Chen's latest salvo affirming former President Lee's "two-states" model and saying that legislation should be passed to enable the people of Taiwan to take part in a referendum on the island's political future...
He knows something.
Don’t you wonder why China’s been so quiet?
"What is walking down our Taiwan road? It is very simple and clear.
Our Taiwan road is “a road of democracy, a road of freedom, a road of human rights, and a road of peace for Taiwan”.
Taiwan is our country.
Our country should not be bullied, dwarfed, marginalized, and localized.
Taiwan is not a part of someone else, not someone else’s local government, and not someone else’s province.
Taiwan cannot become the second Hong Kong or Macao because Taiwan is an independent sovereign state.
In short, it must be clearly distinguished that both Taiwan and China are a country on either side of the strait."
(President Chen)
What balls…
quote:
Originally posted by sandman:I don’t envy her – it must be pretty demeaning to have to stand up and say: “Sorry guys, nothing’s changed. The president of my country is a moron who likes to flap his lips. What can I say?”
when’s the last time something officially changed in the us/taiwan relationship?
clinton agrees to 3 no’s in beijing.
“not sure why you guys are all riled up, nothing’s changed”
clinton sends aircraft carrier in after missle tests
“nothings changed”
bush approves large arms package
“nothing’s changed”
bush “accidentally” makes some VERY pro-taiwan remarks here and there
“sorry, our pres is a moron, nothing’s changed”
chen makes some noises
“sorry, our pres is a moron, as well…nothing’s changed on our end, either”
seems the more things change, the more they stay the same. or is it, the more things stay the same, the more they change?
Juba, stop distorting my posting. You completely changed the meaning. If you want to say something, use your own words.
quote:
Originally posted by v: All the posters who said they would like to see what happens if an invasion occurs are stupid.
Couldn’t agree more.
taiwan wars with china? yawn…and I apologize to any of you newcomers to taiwan/china rhetoric who think i am foolishly downplaying the recent lip flapping done by CSB…
been there, done that…the LTH presidential election…now THERE was some pressure from china, and missiles to boot…i did what everyone did then, bought more rice and fell asleep watching CNN…
newbees, put things into a larger context and chill with the oldtimers ok…
A) china is set for a beeeeg restructuring of people and power later this year…taiwan is testing the water…nothing like a power struggle to further dilute the mainland’s …ahem…legitimacy…just think of it as a sinking dingy and CSB throws them an anvil and asks them what they think about it…
B)taiwan invests sooo much money in china, so if you really wanna how serious the rhetoricit is, listen to the taiwan business report wid stefan groaules at ICRT…hint, when da commies starts booting taiwan bidnesses out of china, book your flight home
C)“nothing has changed”…it’s a referendum to the ROC constitution, not an amendment, ok…and do NOT automatically assume that the voting populace in taiwan will choose Democracy over their own asses…chances are high that the vote for independence could go both ways, for or against…no clear winner there
D) to the short sighted sky-is-falling person who said i was endangering my child by staying in taiwan during these “dangerous times”…think again…id rather not lose my head in ignorance when it is so much easier to actually understand the situation…
quote:Don’t forget the major slip of the lips when Clinton talked about “eventual peaceful reunification”, when in fact the TRA calls for a peaceful resolution, NOT reunification. This was a major blunder, in my view.
Originally posted by Flipper:when’s the last time something officially changed in the us/taiwan relationship?
clinton agrees to 3 no’s in beijing.
“not sure why you guys are all riled up, nothing’s changed”
wait a minute…are you saying that a “slip of the lip” is now impending US/China policy??
posted by noshrink:
…hint, when da commies starts booting taiwan bidnesses out of china, book your flight home…
China would never do that! They’d “repatriate” any Taiwanese unfortunate enough to be working there at the time, and rename the factories China SemiConductor Corp.
hi hay hi ho off to war we go, give me a rifle any day i’ll stay.
why not import some vietmen soldiers,last time the mainland tangled with them they got a bloody nose just like the usa did.
dont jest…the era of rent-an-army is coming…dont be surprised when the republican national commity receives an “annonymous” donation from us based taiwanese groups during the build up of any military confrontation…
ask al gore bout them contributions! lol
yeah, california’s buddhists are real fierce.