Why is everyone so scared of China?


#141

[quote=“bismarck”][quote=“Vorkosigan”]Alas, a US defense expert was explaining on one of the lists the other day that the F-35 is being built under the assumption that the F-22 will be there to clear the airspace for it. Without the F-22 it will be less effective.

Also, there is no way we’ll see that many F-35s. Count on it. The US is going to have to push Japan and Indian to ramp up their fighter forces.

Brrrr… What we’re heading for is a nightmare.[/quote]
Yes, I was surprised the stopped production of the F-22. And I agree, I doubt they’ll produce that many F-35s. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they re-start F-22 production or produce an F-22 B. However, rumblings do tend to indicate that the US may scale back on military expenditure, although I guess that will also greatly depend on who is in the White House from 2012 onwards.[/quote]

Let’s hope they do scale it back dramatically. No one is ever likely to be able to invade the US, so any defense beyond that is pretty much overkill.


#142

@GuyInTaiwan: I see your point and thanks for reply, but what you are saying is an ASSUMPTION, and there has no certainty, has there?
Despite China’s bad records of Human Rights and lack of democracy, rule of law, etc. But the rise of China is still, crucial to the Western interest. As everyone knows, PRC is the largest overseas holder of US dollars, major debtor of Federal Reserve Bonds, and one of largest market for American/European/Japanese goods. Just in recent weeks, China also bailed out Spain and Portugal by purchasing huge amount of European National Bonds, by rescuing Eurozone from debt crisis (they expect a healthy market for Chinese goods in the future)

Im NOT saying China’s rise does not threaten the West, they steal our manual jobs, block the UN Resolution of Iranian Nuclear Programme, secretly support N.Korea and Cambodia, refuse to cooperate on climate change agenda, etc. BUT, if you think our politicians will rise against the world’s 2nd largest economy (probably 1st sooner or later), a country with 1.5 billion people, a nation with nuclear capability, etc. Im afraid that WILL NOT happen, no matter what voters say. (Seriously, when was the last time our politicians gave us what we demanded? I can’t speak for Americans, but in British case, NEVER EVER!)

However, I believe Taiwan will be alright, despite threatened by most powerful country in entire Asia, as long as Taiwanese people do not surrender their liberty, China can not take it by force. This is the age of globalisation, Chinese simply can not afford a large scale war, the economic risk is too high to be burdened :slight_smile:


#143

Kane.Luo: The current crop of politicians wouldn’t rock the boat with China, but if enough people become annoyed with China (even if their perceptions are wrong), then it’s quite conceivable that there could be ultra-nationalistic, populist political parties that could gain serious traction. It doesn’t even have to be a physical war. There could be another period of mercantilism. Western countries could default on their bonds. All sorts of crazy, stupid things could happen. You’re ASSUMING that people (including politicians) always act rationally and in their own best interests. History would suggest otherwise. I’m not saying a particular thing will or won’t happen, but to dismiss the possibility of stupid things happening is short-sighted.


#144

Goerge Friedman expresses the same sentiments in The Next 100 Years. Totally agree.


#145

Bismarck: Indeed. Niall Ferguson talks about America and China’s relationship being similar to that of Britain and Germany’s during Germany’s Second Reich. They were major rivals, but also major trading partners. It was in no one’s interests for them to go to war in WW1. Indeed, despite all of the hindsight prophets, no one at the time actually predicted it. One of Ferguson’s graduate students analysed the bond market prior to the outbreak of WW1 and there was absolutely no indication that there would be war. In 1914, most of the world map was controlled by Europeans. Within a half century, most former colonial powers had either retreated to Europe or were in the process of it. No one would have predicted that in 1914 because it would have seemed so completely irrational at the time, yet the irrational happened.


#146

The Uighurs are certainly feeling China’s wrath


#147

Not everyone is afraid of China. Just those living in it really.