If China wants a war, they will start one as soon as they know they can definitely win and are properly prepa. They dont want Taiwan to provoke them into starting one, I dont understand the logic to this at all. They know very well that Taiwan isnt going to shoot down their planes.
Why would they want Taiwan to provoke to start a war? What would be the motivation for doing that? If China is confident it can win a war and has also assessed they can handle the costs of doing that, they will just start a war.
When they do start a war, they want to bring as little attention to themselves on possible. The race is then on for the allies to get to the war theater in time to save Taiwan. It would make no sense for them to want to force Taiwan to provoke them into starting a war.
Ships that carry rice,pork,beef,fish(this one especially since their fleet is far flung), soya beans, corn, oil, coal, yellowcake, various raw ores and, etc…, are vulnerable at choke points between source and China.
Seems they will incur more wrath from U.S. Australia Japan etc. if they go unprovoked with an all-out attack on Taiwan, vs. supposedly retaliate for Taiwan shooting down one of their innocent war planes.
Not necessarily a war. Possibly to say that it is the other guy is bad. Typical bully move. It’s is also very much part of the 36 Stratagems.
Also, this war will not be won or lost on a traditional battlefield. Guns bombs war planes/ships are not necessary currently Hollywood and Wall Street are fighting for China on USA soil.
Maybe the strategy says Taiwan won’t shoot down a plane. But mistakes happen. Humans are involved. Every time China has planes near, there’s that tiny chance some overzealous (or overly sensitive about mom) human or or AI system (programmed by humans) will actually shoot.