Yes that will work
They want to signal to Beijing to not even think about it.
Guy
Of course, was just making a point.
What Beijing really wants is to amass enough fire power that they can win a war whether or not the US are involved. At that point, would make sense that Taiwan would just capitulate
What I find fascinating is often people make the same argument but can’t agree. It’s amazing to me. So many comments in this thread are mostly saying similar things to the point they may be trying to convey a similar perspective. But the people can’t agree. Very funny.
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Sorry, not sure I follow – if I want to believe the strategy is Taiwan won’t shoot down a plane? Isn’t that what you said?
Anyhow, IIRC, one article (a Taipei Times editorial - The Liberty Times Editorial: Defense against ‘gray zone’ warfare - Taipei Times) you reference states, "Beijing is eroding Taiwan’s military strength and public morale by continuously pressuring Taiwanese to force Taipei to yield when it finds it is too late to counteract Beijing’s strategy.
By doing so, Beijing might not have to launch a traditional high-cost, high-risk and difficult invasion."
So taking that as gospel, “might not have to launch”… but then again, will Taiwan forever yield–as China increases pressure more and more? Is there not a point where Taiwan will NOT yield? I would hope at some point Taiwan will resist – whether as strategy or otherwise – vs. just let China do whatever it likes. And in any case I believe thes “strategy” and the actual behavior may not always be 100% in sync, and the fly-bys may eventually lead to some unplanned action (by EITHER side) that’s not really part of the strategy. (Did China strategically plan to say “go f*uck your mother”? Even if so, there may be other actions that some pilot accidentally or intentionally takes, sooner or later, just as after so many cars drive on highway eventually there is an accident…)
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Taiwan isnt going to shoot down a Taiwanese plane unprovoked.
Yes
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What’s “unprovoked”? That seems to be applying less and less.
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Oh will be an actual attack.
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Amazingly most forumosans are not inside members of Beijing’s military decision making circle. It’s odd that you would think we would all have transparent access to Beijing’s decisions.
Guy
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What?
They arent going to shoot down a plane just for encroaching on Taiwan’s ADIZ.
Oh, the software indicated you were responding to me. Not sure why you’d say that, I think you’ve made that point clear.
I agree with your husband and I am not concerned. This literally is the time of year when China can be expected to pull stunts like this. They began their celebration of the fall of the last dynasty on 1 Oct. In the past the country used to go on a week long holiday (the 3rd Golden Week of the year). Maybe they still do that today. This can be expected to be the peak time if the year for expressions of patriotism (and support for the Party).
I haven’t been following Chinese politics closely. But China’s capability to successfully invade Taiwan is not expected to be sufficient for another 5 or 10 years. (These expectations are apparently from US military analysts). You can search this forum or elsewhere for deeper analysis on this.
A lot can happen in that time. 10 years ago, China and it’s leadership seemed to be relatively progressive. Hopefully, in the next decade, there will be a return to that. Who can say? Covid is changing the way we travel, work, and study. The next 10 years may well involve one or 2 more massive shifts in the way the world works – which could impact China’s capacity or level of interest in invading Taiwan.
Below in this is one person’s view of what China will likely need to deal with.
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I don’t think the CCP would bother with trying to get Taiwan to shoot down one of its planes as justification for war.
My money is they’ll do what they always do, push as far as they can and then push a little further if they get away with it.
Surprise attack on Jinmen?
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No doubt if they wanted to start a war they would just do it, but how far will they go if Taiwan doesn’t push back, and what options does Taiwan have to push back? Is there any other possibility for negative consequences for an excessive provocation by China? If something serious goes down, there could be other negative consequences for Taiwan besides war, and China would probably be quite pleased.
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I posted a link here over why the US submarine fleet can be expected to help out.
Some of our recent signalling is pretty encouraging. I suspect we may have a couple of aces up our sleeve, after all we work pretty hard (translation: spend 
tons of money) at it.
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What! How did I say that?
Is this meant to be irony?
I’ve been reading Zeihan for years. He doesn’t much seem worried about China.
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