What on earth are you talking about now? I said that 40%ish of the dead people were unvaxed, and that in the demographic who are dying 20%ish are unvaxed (I’m not sure what the exact figure is because it’s not published).
Yes, the unvaccinated are grossly overrepresented.
How grossly? Can you put a number on the grossness?
And incidentally: this is the vaccines-for-kids thread. Vaccines-for-cancer-patients is a bit OT.
10% of the people in Taiwan are unvaxxed. Not 40%.
Since 10% of the people are representing 40% of deaths. They are overrepresented.
Thought Experiment:
If we have 20 people, 16 take the vax, 4 remain unvaxxed. Two vaxxed people die from the virus, two unvaxxed people die from the virus. That makes both camps 50% of deaths each.
But half of the unvaxxed died while 10% of the vaxxed died. The unvaxxed camp are significantly overrepresented.
If the vaccine does not work, we should not see very much difference if at all in death rates between zero, one, two, three and four shots after controlling for other variables.
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Unless those that are unvaxxed are the most likely to die anyways. No one can say for certain now.
However, what we can say for certain is that the likelihood for healthy young people to die isn’t worth worrying about, so we should get on with living.
It wouldn’t matter because it would be controlled for other factors.
I agree. But the benefits are clear. the data after 3 million known cases show that the unvaccinated die at far higher rates than the vaccinated.
Do I support mandatory vaccinations? No, not at this moment.
You seem to have some misunderstanding there. I have not yet seen a total death count in Taiwan, vaccinated vs unvaccinated. The only death count where this differentiation is made, is the covid 19 death count - which is only a fraction of the total death count every day.
So what we would much rather need, is a drill down by age groups of total death count, exclude those with accidents, murder, and so on - of vaccinated vs unvaccinated . That this is not done in any country actually speaks out wonders - because if the goverments were sure that this number is in any way able to show us the effectiveness of the so called vaccines - it would have been published many times already.
That this number is not published or not even accounted anywhere - speaks bounds about the nil or negative effectiveness of vaccines.
As to Taiwan, from all the numbers so far we have seen - the elder are the least vaccinated group (above 12 years) in Taiwan. And I don’t see problems for elder people with the vaccines - not that I see much help of them since omicron either. However those harmed by the so called vaccines are mainly under 40 (a group that only makes up less than 0.5-3% of covid deaths worldwide) it’s well documented that side effects and serious side effects are mostly happening to young people.
So please show me that total death count with vaccinated vs unvaccinated. I’m really curious - because I cannot find it anywhere for any country! Otherwise sorry, I call your statement in best terms inability to read my comment, in worse forms misinformation!
Without this number we can only look at excess deaths - and compare that from highly vaxxed vs highly unvaxxed countries. The problem of course is - that kinda no highly unvaxxed country has good usable excess deaths count.
Switzerland for example has rather low booster uptake and vaccination rates, had much less strict or no lockdowns vs most of Europe - and since the vaccination drive begin much lower excess deaths vs their highly vaxxed neighbours like Austria. Even their covid deaths counts in this period where much better (while worse before). But yeah - basically vaccination has such a subtle effect - there is nothing to be seen if you compare all countries with known excess deaths and vaccination rates in either direction. Clearly however less lockdowns / measures now evolve to show up better and better (not even considering secondary problems like missed school classes, obesity, economic problems and so on)
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Best is to calculate baserate adjusted numbers.
Deaths Per 100k By Age By Vaccination Status [2022] (updated June 14)
| Age | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 0.97 | - | - | - |
| 5-11 | 2.12 | 0.0 | - | - |
| 12-17 | 0.0 | 0.73 | 0.17 | 0.0 |
| 18-29 | 6.75 | 0.93 | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| 30-49 | 33.83 | 7.05 | 1.94 | 0.82 |
| 50-64 | 57.16 | 39.6 | 13.35 | 5.13 |
| 65-74 | 152.66 | 92.55 | 44.93 | 15.28 |
| 75+ | 319.79 | 252.94 | 174.26 | 72.41 |
Most deaths happen after age 50+. One can clearly see that vaccines have positive impact.
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That is not deaths but deaths within 30 days if having been infected with covid/testing positive. That’s a clear difference.
So far the vaccines likely give some net positive for over 50s, but it rather looks like net negative for under 40!
Mind in most well developed countries mean age is between 40-46.
There are clearly people dying from vaccination, male, sportive under 40 the biggest risk group for myocarditis deaths by vaccination. The numbers are quite high and since omicron it really doesn’t look like the positive effect or vaccination on covid infection can outweigh the negative effects of vaccination… that money would be way better spent on sports and nutrition advice Vs vaccines…
Also mind the counting tricks. If you are not yet 14 days past your second shot, you are unvaccinated or in Taiwan maybe 1 shot. Yet the vaccination harms your immune system and infection within 14 days of vaccination is way more likely than without the shot. From when on your third shot counts varies by country.
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My kid’s school was giving jabs last week. We had at least three messages about how if you have had covid within 12 weeks, you can’t take the vaccine. Why not? What are the dangers?
But a lot of children have minor or zero symptoms. That surely means a lot were vaccinated after recently having covid, right?
If you get the vaccine while being COVID positive, your body won’t jump into action to produce the desired antibody reponse—it is missing out on this “training mission,” which is what the vaccines are intended to do.
I have not read about any actual harm caused by vaccines administered during such circumstances; they are however not able to work effectively.
Maybe one way around this potential problem is to take rapid tests?
Guy
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The UK is only offering two doses to kids. Non urgent.
The USA is saying everyone over 5 should get three.
Whut? A quick glance at the list of cases suggests that nothing is being “controlled for”. I’m not sure how that phrase is even applicable here.
If you mean that the signal-to-noise ratio is the same in the vaxed and unvaxed groups, that’s probably true. If you mean there’s no reporting bias, that might be true, but it’s far from obvious.
The benefits to an extremely small subset of the population are … well, they might be there and they might be not. And let’s not assume the vaccines are free: the cost of buying those people a few more months of life might be good value for money, or it might not be. The data isn’t there.
I’m not sure how many people in Taiwan are chronically sick and very old, but I suspect it’s only in the hundreds of thousands.
The data you see for that subset are not applicable to children - or indeed to anyone other demographic not appearing regularly on the death list. Claiming otherwise is - ta-da! - disinformation. Or perhaps misinformation. Or malinformation. I haven’t got my doublespeak down pat yet.
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When governments are simply adding suicides and drownings to the official Covid death numbers since day one, then you can probably add the ‘Base Rate Adjusted’ ignorance to these categories of ‘malinformation’ as well.
Also, that no distinction is being made between ‘caused by’ or ‘with’ (and to what extent Covid really caused the death) when labelling a death as “Covid death,” simply adds to this gross misrepresentation of Covid death data.
It’s all inherently unreliable and inaccurate. As I previously cited, only 4 deaths yesterday were of people with no chronic disease. All were vaxxed. Seems like the unvaccinated are ‘grossly underrepresented’ in those particular numbers 
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Several qualified observers have made the same comment. It looks like there’s a wealth of data there, but if you attempt to perform any analysis on it you find that the data is so poorly characterised that it’s almost useless for anything except handwaving.
Exactly. Not only do they not publish it, they persistently attempt to inflate the perceived risks by presenting them in ways that the general public can’t interpret properly.
I attempted a napkin calculation of this in some other thread. The upshot is that children/teenagers 5-19 have a background all-cause risk of death of 0.0200%. COVID increases that risk (if you pretend that this is a single-valued risk rather than the mean of a PDF) to 0.0202%. Getting vaccinated reduces that to 0.0201%.
In other words, vaccines are all cost and no benefit for children. Bizarrely, if you run the numbers, the same holds true even for people well into old age - their all-cause risk is modified by almost nothing by getting vaccinated.
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The questionable validity of these Covid death numbers looks like one day they may simply be added to these datasets.
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Yes the title is clear on that and I was replying to Marco.
Taiwan avoided having a big outbreak until this year. The data for 2022 has not been released yet.
But you can have a look at USA and their covid outbreaks from previous years incl. 2022:
It is likely that some older people who died from covid didn’t have much time left anyway. But that is not the case for all of them, as some claim in the other thread. Many passed away way too early.
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If you want to see how much effects cobid really had you need to look at countries without vaccination and lockdowns. Only possible in Africa but then they suffered from missing food imports already.
Sweden and Norway are the best examples for isolation, as they mostly skipped on lockdowns. Lockdowns caused the most part of lifeyears lost. Yes it will be hard to see any effect of both COVID itself or vaccination in comparison. Switzerland was similar but more mask mandates Vs Scandinavia. And many lockdown induced problems like illiteracy are still to hit upon us. Lockdowns, masks outside of high risk settings and school closures are the biggest problem.
Are you sure about Norway? I recall them having a proper old lockdown. Gave the anti Sweden chaps ammunition.
You are joking, right?
Guy
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