Inflation will course correct when demand drops. Demand has currently exceeded supply so prices will go up.
People couldn’t travel during the pandemic and now they can. So guess what? Surge in travel, further surge in prices. How long are you going to blame free money?
Even excessives don’t believe their modern monetary fantasies any longer even though they adamantly cling to them. If they did they’d just hand out another couple trillion dollars in free money to help people over this rough patch but even they aren’t that deluded about how real world economics works.
He’s not. Don’t believe the shitty yahoo headline (on either what Biden said, or on cuts). He talked about them having cut capacity during the pandemic and wanting them to bring it back up. Read the letter yourself:
He didn’t exactly blame them for cutting production, eh?
And frankly, he’s right about their eluctance to scale up quickly at the expense of profits. Which, in a free economy, is fine. But most people don’t like that.
Cutting during the pandemic?
You do remember WTI futures going to negative prices AND there was NO place to store oil. Not traditionally, nor in ships, nor in even train tankers. The whole delivery channels were clogged with oil that didn’t have a place for storage.
Yeah, output more oil when in negative prices or maybe $10/barrel. That’s smart business.
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU).
It’s an extremely large strand of topic in the research literature.
When businesses do Not see certainty in a government’s economic policy, they would rather not invest. It’s too risky to do so.
That is what is happening with oil companies. Biden and team cannot force them to invest, when on the other side of their mouths, they’re saying energy should go green and get rid of oil (coal, nuclear, etc.).
That’s not really going on though, at least not as a result of politics. They actually ARE still investing. Just not as crazy and irresponsibly (from eh investor perspective) like before (but still large amounts) - it’s explicitly about not being stupid with dril drill drill like before (which drove prices down down down and costs up up up), but maintaining fiscal discipline and margins. They’ve been ramping production back up at a good pace (the prices aren’t mostly a supply problem). As someone invested pretty heavily in oil, I’m concerned the high oil prices are going to be too tempting and they’re going to lose discipline.
A lot of refineries been closing since the pandemic.
This writer has a decent handle on what’s going on.
Globally, Russia’s refineries are running 30% lower than normal. Europe’s, which rely on Russian feed, are also running at reduced rates. This affects prices everywhere.
US refineries are operating at mid-high 90% capacity range. Run higher than that and units can get volatile. Before Covid, several US refiners were concerned that we had more refineries than needed to meet demand. Some plants were losing money or breaking even. But unlike upstream/shale it was a stable, stable business (I remember worrying my job would be boring).