I think I’d rather face the possibility of a stray bomb than go in my building’s basement.
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I don’t understand why MRT has so much elevated track. Underground just makes more sense in the long run. Better for urban planning too.
As an ex-Taiwan expat, how does everyone in Taiwan feel about the threat of China? Real and credible or all hot air?
Cost. In most subway systems in the world, only the sections of the track that go through dense urban downtown areas are built underground.
I’m not packing bags, but not buying property.
In 2021, doing the research that led me to Forumosa, I concluded there was a good 5 years (up to 2027) before I needed to really worry.
Now, my assessment has changed only in that I will reassess after the next election and a grey zone escalation is more likely than surprise invasion
I think in the short term most people aren’t worried. In the long term we have Forumosans buying property and packing bags
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Real and credible. People who believe it’s hot air simply don’t realize how irrational some governments can behave.
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I’d avoid critical junctures. Railways will be a target, no argument.
They wouldn’t bomb every mile of track, but they would absolutely reduce personnel mobility. Trains, mrt, high speed rail would have to be made useless. They don’t have to hit the stations for that.
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I’ve seen quite a few of them around the area where Central and West districts meet in Taichung (kinda around the fifth market area). Kinda messed with me because I have yet to see one near my house! I want my bomb shelter too!
Russia’s recent aggression has been a particularly interesting experience in relation to Taiwan. While I think it’s definitely shown the Chinese that we’re not really bluffing here (if the US was willing to do that much for Ukraine, who it’s really not that attached to, then the US is most likely up to do the same for Taiwan), which should be a significant deterrent for China.
That said, it’s also shown a great example of a strongman in his element (that is, being surrounded by incompetent yes-men). And I think it’ll be no surprise if Xi is willing to make the same kinds of crazy decisions that Putin did, believing that it can be done as fait accompli and ignoring all the logical reasons why a war really makes taking Taiwan so much less attractive beyond finally extinguishing the flame of the R.O.C. and democracy within the ‘Chinese’ countries of Asia.
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They could probably hack a lot of it
He is 100% willing. Chinas mindset is long term. They are willing to sacrifice short term prosperity for pain if it fits their roadmap. We saw that with total lockdowns in Shanghai. And their roadmap is longer than 1 or 2 US presidents.
If Xi sees it in his favor or best time, he absolutely will. He’s also got patriotism on his side. China is in a much better position than Russia in terms of military capabilities and technology. If surrounded, Taiwan is also on its own, unlike Ukraine, which can be resupplied by other countries constantly without direct confrontation with Russia.
If there wasn’t the thought he is willing, we wouldn’t be seeing Air Defense signs everywhere (like we are all seeing around now), foreign governments asking about security of their citizens if an attack, companies moving assets to other countries, companies offloading TSMC stock, etc etc.
It’s just a matter of when and if that time is sooner rather than later and if peaceful or not peaceful.
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Lol. How is attacking Taiwan in China’s long term interests? It’s gonna utterly destroy China’s economy if they can’t take over Taiwan in less than a week and even then all it takes is closure of China’s trade routes either at South India or Malacca and China is done for.
Not to mention the crippling sanctions that will be put on them. Sanctions work, it has been proven many times.
Xi will only attack Taiwan if he is deranged. There is no positive outcome foreseeable for a China that invades Taiwan. At least not until they can comfortably overwhelm US military.
Not necessarily attacking, but reunification. Closes the chapter on 100 years of humiliation, closes the chapter on reunification by 2049, gives China access to Pacific ocean with a strong PLA, breaks the US island chain defense, gives China an extra zone in defense against its own mainland.
Attack is just one option to achieve that is becoming more of a possibility. Encircling is another.
That’s also why they too are decoupling and increasing trade bilaterally with Russia, Brazil, Africa, South America.
Where have I heard that before… Oh wait… more than a year ago with Ukraine, and yet that war is still ongoing.
Again, these new Air Defense signs are not to concerns over earthquakes, Japan, NK, etc…
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Nonsense. Everyone thought Putin could take over overnight. Biden even offered to extract Zelenski.
Regardless how’s that war going? How was it to Russia’s benefit?
If there wasn’t an election next year, and Terry Gou running for leadership, we wouldn’t be seeing those signs.
That’s SOP
Excuses land in one’s lap sometimes.
If China thought long term, they’d have kept their mouths shut and boiled the frog slowly.
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No one is arguing that. It’s that people were saying he wouldn’t do it, if he does he is deranged, etc etc. Even Ukraine government downplayed threat when the US gave Intel that it was imminent.
Of course it’s a worry. Taiwan’s government cannot bet the safety of the country on the sanity of a foreign leader. They need to prepare for the worst. My point is that there is no scenario where the war will end up being good for China.
Defending this place comes at a cost, also. How much do they have in resources to keep it once they’ve taken it?
It could be all the “hot air” that Swanky is asking about. A lot of governments or politicians like to use propaganda to exaggerate a foreign threat to sway votes or to get policies enacted or just to distract their population from other things.
We also saw unprecedented protests in China followed by a swift reversal of tough COVID measures; long term survival of the party is worth short term sacrifice of everything, including conquest of Taiwan.
Yes
Maybe, a lot of their stuff is based on Russian designs
Maybe, byt maybe this will bring Taiwan a different type of assistance from Japan and the US who I think aren’t afraid of China east of Taiwan
Yes