And that’s why the Global response to China invading Taiwan will be swift, ferocious, astonishing, add any more adjectives you like.
2 Likes
What is this even supposed to mean?
The yellow river flood was done by a power that once did control almost all of China, albeit with many autonomous regions run by local cliques (something which isn’t entirety new within Chinese history, the Southwest long being an area of low imperial control) and the southern Song lost. Nevertheless, China was reunited. And once the Mongols were gone, it didn’t truly fracture again in the way it did before then. Transitions were nasty, sure, but from the Yuan to the Qing, China remained by and large whole.
From the Mongol invasion to the fall of the Qing, China remained uniquely unified – at least nominally, there were of course changes of power and rebellions, but there was never a prolonged period of proper seperate dynasties. The closest to it, maybe the Taiping heavenly kingdom? For all of like 14 years. Only the Sino-Japanese wars and civil war changed this.
If you want to say the faces may change I might believe it. As I was just saying – it’s happened before. One new power moves into the power vacuum of the old. Maybe certain regions (Tibet, Xinjiang) might push towards autonomy or independence; maybe they’ll be successful. Personally, I don’t think a power of China’s size – even after losing a war of aggression outside of it’s borders with a significant hit to military might – will enable foreign powers to split you up, nor will it encourage a patriotic and nationalist (and mostly Han) people towards regional particularism. Germany could be treated as it was after the world wars because it was defeated totally. In the first it was unconditional surrender or Russian revolution style treatment of the Kaiser. Now this is the best possibility for regime change, but territoriality China proper – the main, core provinces, not including the more controversial additions – is not going anywhere. You might lose the Alsace to the French, but Germany remains Germany, by and large. In the second it was defeat on their own soil. And this is not something that will happen, as frankly a direct soil-on-soil great power war runs way too hot and way too bloody. Take away their navy, their air force, their missiles, and they remain a nuclear power with mass production capabilities and a population large enough to make any mainland fighting absolutely untenable as a political or military goal. The USA is not in the political climate for that; if we didn’t do it to Japan, we definitely wouldn’t do it to modern, nuclear China. China is powerful enough and will remain powerful enough, even with money, prestige, and military losses, that the core, 100% de jure China is not going to fragment, period. That’s untenable to the people – and, if that is done, it’s a horrible decision with no regard for history.
If anything, Xi will fall. That’s possible. Big names will be put away and a new group will move in. Not unlikely even. But the end of the CCP as we know it? Not so sure about that, and even if it does happen, I don’t think that’ll make China a more pleasant face on the world stage long-term. Took reaming Germany hard again before they stopped after the Entente thought they’d put Germany in it’s place. But realistically, it’s not a situation where the US would be able to force that kind of unconditional surrender. And I still doubt the Chinese population would turn coat on the government that much. Taiwan is an internal matter to them, and much like many Russians think there is nothing wrong with getting involved in Ukraine to protect themselves against NATO aggression, the Chinese would simply see themselves as the victim of this. There is no future, period, where China gets balkanized.
Call back to what I was saying earlier. From the Mongol invasion to the fall of the Qing, China remained uniquely unified – at least nominally, there were of course changes of power and rebellions, but there was never a prolonged period of proper seperate dynasties. The closest to it, maybe the Taiping heavenly kingdom? For all of like 14 years. Only the Century of Humiliation as prelude to the Sino-Japanese wars and the Chinese civil war changed this. And forget the government. The Chinese people will not allow that. It’s a cut so historically painful and deep that they might just rather see the party fall than the core Chinese state split. Maybe – maybe – Tibet and Xinjiang go their own way and we can force that. Maybe, and that would be a big hurt as it is. But telling the Chinese that Tianjin is now an independent, largely foreign-influenced country? They’ll burn the place down with themselves inside of it before they let that repeat. If that’s the terms of surrender, it’s a suicidal term we would be in no position to enforce. If our goal is to make a friendlier China, how does that fit into the Clausewitzian war goal? That’s killing the Emperor in Japan and forcing them to go around and parade their atrocities. It’s nation building suicide. I don’t see victory there.
Tell me exactly how the has-been empire of Russia being controlled behind the scenes is in any way equivalent to China in like, any way?
I’m sorry, these are nice fantasies, but winning in Taiwan guarantees Taiwan stays Taiwan, albeit a much worse off Taiwan. Obviously I’m not like some of the people here who feel that war is 100% pointless 100% of the time and just think it’s peachy to let the world fill up with autocrats determined to fuck us, although i definitely don’t like war either. Defending Taiwan is good, but it’s not a panacea to problems with China. Losing here wouldn’t be the end for China, it’d maybe be the end for Xi. And that’s assuming he loses enough and hard enough for the people’s anti-American sentiment to not carry through.
2 Likes
So the options are chaos or total destruction. I fear China will get away with it as people fear war in their doorstep. But China government does not. It can lose people it has plenty. It can weather destruction, it is rich. Not the West, it is barely there after the pandemic and Ukraine war.
1 Like
People been saying this for at least a century and yet democracies take a stand when they have to. It is not guaranteed by any means but the softness of democracies during peace time and the facade of control put forward by dictators don’t mean anything either.
1 Like
You wasted your time writing that diatribe, too wordy. Did you have anything in there about the Chinese being so united that anybody with money or connections hides their kids and moms abroad? Did you have anything in there about how Chinese people scatter and fuck off as far and as fast as they can at the first sign of trouble, ala Wuhan? They aren’t united. They protest because their own bank accounts disappear, not because their neighbours’ did.
1 Like
I was not comparing China to Russia - just stating that there is no more “Russia” - all that remains is the language and culture - everything else including the people and military is held hostage by Beijing, a carbon copy of other China-controlled regions such as North Korea.
Taiwan most certainly would be well off in winning scenario and China would be completely dismantled after attempting an invasion.
China was getting away with lots of stuff for decades - but not anymore. China has established itself along with its proxies as the number one threat to humanity, so all eyes are laser focused on every micro-movement of China/proxies like never before.
The economic decoupling and reduction in demand on Chinese manufacturing or Chinese made goods means China is not going to weather any losses. China will face serious economic consequences if they invade, including embargoes, mass food shortages, and more. Under present economic conditions China’s massive infrastructure which requires continuous round-the-clock maintenance will become an exponential drain on their economy — either leading to reduced maintenance, crumbling, or having operations completely halted. Life in China will become extremely difficult.
Those air raid shelters were around a long time just new signs as most people didn’t know where they were. But the new signs in itself is ominous.
Probably won’t be an invasion but could be limited exchanges of fire over any incident like what happened in Kinmen.
Now of course they can shoot further so possibly will launch a few around to test Taiwan’s anti missile defense.
They could just stage a fishing boat incident …
1 Like
My area is heavy blue and in the collateral damage zone. Not one sign, anywhere.
so not Taipei or Kao City then I guess?
In front of my building it points left but if I step my my next door building on the right, the sign points to the right !
All I got to do now is figure out which one is the best sign to follow if time ever comes
What happens when the power is out? what unlocks the digital door?
1 Like
They still do lol 
1 Like
I saw the police put it up outside my apartment building awhile ago. I thought my building was special or something lmao. Disappointed.
Stand in the middle of them
1 Like
I’d assumed up to now it was the building/neighborhood management or whoever putting them up rather than the police. Curious if they’re checking whether these emergency shelters are actually fit for purpose and not full of old appliances before sticking up the signs. 
2 Likes
I might be more inclined, in case of actual war on Taiwan, to avoid buildings with CKMT political signs and propaganda plastered on them rather than be drawn to buildings with bomb shelter signs leading to locked doors, gates and otherwise useless routes of escape
1 Like
What city is this?
Taipei:
防空洞 bomb shelter 華山店
02 2394 0801