Most likely culprit: KMT fanatic
Second most likely: DPP fanatic (looking for sympathy vote)
Third most likely: Gangster
(I voted for “DPP fanatic” because there is no “KMT fanatic” option available.)
A what? Is that an under-done Coup D’etate?
It was a PRC sponsored hit. Achim’s razor and all…it seems to be the simplest explanation given the 2 bullets. I like the gambler odds evening theory too.
Maybe the two assassins worked for two entirely different employers. Since each didn’t know the other would be there, they got in each other’s way and missed. Kind of like that Woody Allen movie where two groups of bank robbers show up at the same bank on the same day.
“I shot the sheriff, but I didn’t shoot the deputy, no no no!”
I just posted an account of the facts, reports, and theories surrounding the incident on my website, along with all the pictures I can find (I need one of the bullet hole in the windshield if somebody can help there).
All the major theories are outlined, with pros and cons as I see them. If you have an corrections or objections, feel free to tell me.
To clear something up - the shootings were on Junghua Road in Tainan. Now if they were headed in the direction I think they were heading, Chi Mei Hospital would be the easiest to take Chen and Lu to, as it’s also on Junghua Road. The conspiracy theorists say that there are two private clinics closer by. Yes, but those are clinics, not major hospitals. I had a motorscooter accident near the same area, on Junghua Road, a couple of years ago. A guy broke his leg and they took us first to the one of those private clinics close by, but they weren’t hospitals and told us that they weren’t equipped to deal with major injuries. So, we went to Chi Mei Hospital. Yes, it’s 5 kilos, but it’s the closest major hospital to the Weimin/Junghua intersection were Chen & Lu were shot. And 5 kilos isn’t that far - it’s right down the street! About 10 minutes of beating your way through traffic.
Just throw this out there for thought…
The bullet and shell casings look to be .32 caliber…Given the lack of deformity of the bullet removed from the President and the radical deflection of the other bullet after striking the windshield that hit Annete, it seems we could draw a couple of conclusions…One thing for sure is that both rounds were nearly spent when hitting the Jeep. That means either the shots were taken from a fair distance for a handgun, home loaded with a low grain shell…Or the third and most interesting…A purposely loaded subsonic bullet, like something you’d use with a silencer…
More facts and it looks a little more real.
However, if it was a scam, it could have been a botched scam, maybe no one was meant to get hit. Just the car? Who knows but I won’t count anything out with all the stupid stuff that has been going on. The way elections go here I think everyone is idiot enough to do anything, even risk their lives.
Too many questions.
[quote=“bobdobba”]I just posted an account of the facts, reports, and theories surrounding the incident on my website, along with all the pictures I can find (I need one of the bullet hole in the windshield if somebody can help there).
All the major theories are outlined, with pros and cons as I see them. If you have an corrections or objections, feel free to tell me.[/quote]
One issue – it is highly unlikely that the would-be assassins used revolvers. Shell casings don’t get ejected from revolvers except by deliberate action (e.g., reloading: open cylinder, eject brass, insert new cartridges, close cylinder). Revolvers typically have a minimum of five chambers in the cylinder, so only two pieces of brass being found would again point away from a revolver (unless they ejected their brass and picked up some of them). Besides, an assassin would have to be a compleat moron to dump his brass, so finding any is a sign of a semiauto.
A semiauto handgun would eject the spent case during the firing cycle. This is far more likely – your photo shows two pieces of brass. Hard to say for sure, but I don’t see any sign of a protruding rim; revolver cartridges headspace on the rim, while semiautos headspace on the case mouth.
A lead bullet would have been from a low-pressure cartridge. It also looks pretty small in the doctor’s hand. I would guess .32ACP. 9mm rarely has lead bullets because of the pressure and velocity; the bullet looks far too small to be a .45, and I don’t see a heel on the bullet (hard to say, poor quality photo) so it’s probably not a .22LR. Besides, the brass looks too large.
The security in general doesn’t seem to be very good. I interpreted for an outdoor event attended by VP Lu last year, and I swear I could have taken the woman out with a penknife if I’d wanted to. I had about 10 minutes following her around, within arm’s length of her, and no one asked me who I was, what I was doing there or anything at all. I would have thought my reputation for breaking and entering and taking out security guards would have gone before me, but…sheesh! 
Good points! Despite the firecrackers, firing a pistol is LOUD. One quibble, .32ACP (and similar catridges) is already subsonic for most loads, so they wouldn’t need to use reloads.
(Quick educational note: sound suppressors, “silencers”, only muffle the muzzle blast; if a bullet is supersonic, there is still a sonic boom shockwave.)
A quick Google search turns up this page:
goldenloki.com/ammo/gel/32acp/gel32acp.htm
Note in particular the Sellier & Belloit 73gr lead at 912fps. For the rest, other than the “exotics”, velocities are all well below 1080fps (1091fps at STP, but what’s a few fps among friends?).
Killing someone or even attempting to do so isn’t funny at all. It’s tragic.
However, for those who have looked at pictures of the assassination attempt in detail, is it even possible that:
-
a/several gunman/men could be able to hold a gun toward the President in front of hundreds of die-hard fans without someone noticing;
-
a/several gunman/men could shoot across the stream of officers on scooters that were along side the President’s jeep without someone noticing;
-
a bullet could enter a windshield, zoom by the aid in the passenger seat, fly over the seat, then across President Chen’s abdomen, missing the jeep’s roll-bar and getting re-directed by a sportscoat;
-
a bullet fired from the front could create a wound going from the upper-right slanting toward the lower-left?
Just curious…
[quote=“jwar”]Killing someone or even attempting to do so isn’t funny at all. It’s tragic.
However, for those who have looked at pictures of the assassination attempt in detail, is it even possible that:
-
a/several gunman/men could be able to hold a gun toward the President in front of hundreds of die-hard fans without someone noticing;
-
a/several gunman/men could shoot across the stream of officers on scooters that were along side the President’s jeep without someone noticing;[/quote]
With firecrackers going off all around, everyone looking at the President, and a little artful concealment? No problemo. Especially if, as MJBotti suggested, they might have silenced their pistols.
I have very little doubt that in the U.S., the Secret Service would NEVER EVER allow any president, even a piece of shit like Bill Clinton, to be in the middle of a crowd setting off fireworks. The noise and distraction could conceal damn near anything.
[quote=“jwar”]3) a bullet could enter a windshield, zoom by the aid in the passenger seat, fly over the seat, then across President Chen’s abdomen, missing the jeep’s roll-bar and getting re-directed by a sportscoat;
- a bullet fired from the front could create a wound going from the upper-right slanting toward the lower-left?[/quote]
Who says the bullet was fired from the front? Or that there were only two bullets? If there were two shooters, there were at least two directions, the vehicle was moving, and the angle of attack was shifting constantly with it.
Has there been any detailed information on the paths that the bullets took? Unless there has been, I don’t see how you could even begin to speculate about these last two. AFAIK there is just too little information available.
I was thinking . . . dangerous, I know . . . it’s illegal to release poll data during the last ten days, but what if the KMT ran the numbers and determined that CSB had gained some more and was going to win? They could decide to kill him to get a “do over” on the election in a few months.
So, one killer with a homemade double-barreled gun, shells got here and there. He fires the first shot from a position in front of the car, aiming at Chen. The bullet miss, ricochett off something and hit Lu’s knee(protector), without much reaction from her. He think he missed and noe one notices, so he decide to try again. He need to reload, and just finish when the car is just in front of him, so he just fire at will, getting no reaction and thinking he missed (not knowing he sliced the belly of Chen).
I think the shooter is on TV, standing at the right hand of a guy with white t-shirt w/ble sleeves and at the left of a girl (not easy to say from TV-pictures) with white t-shirt and olive pants with pockets all over. The guy did not have any flag, he wore a white wind-braker with tie and shirt under. Look at his hand when and after the president pass if you can see some repetition.
It was an attempt to kill the president of Taiwan, whtever conspiracy we can think about!
HOTTALA!!
Yes, and the remarkable thing is that the pan-blues think it was some DPP gimmick to sway voters…get real. Try to kill the candidate to get votes? Only an idiot could even consider it, but then there are the KMT supporters… 
Channel News Asia has in fact reported that witnesses saw a man on a motorcycle well ahead of the motorcade firing a few shots and then speeding off on his motorcycle. Supposedly he was wearing a full face helmet and a A-Bian Family t-shirt. If so, it’s a time honored gangster tactic.
The only really plausible theory at the moment is gangsters did it for the betting pool. Aimed to maim, not aimed to kill. But if true, did their “event” work the magic they wanted, i.e., a DPP win, or were they hoping for a KMT win. Or did the botch the “event.”?
Maybe the police were in on it, too. Two bullet casings were found beneath a police car, well beneath where a police car had been parking during the campaign rally and then drove off later and a local kid found the bullets there.
Gangsters, police, Tainan. It fits.
But what was the mission and what was the plan?
Whatever, …now… it’s gonna be a long day in the courts for two months, more mudslinging and Sisy Chen on TV and Soong and Lien and CHen Lu talking heads.
Where is this gonna lead and when is this gonna end?
Who could have predicted THIS outcome?
What Taiwan needs now is a fat lady. So that someone can say “It’s not over until …”
Sissy Chen has escaped to South Korea.
Anyone ever heard of this? It is part of the KMT kurouji strategy and they fed this to the New York Times now. Did this really happen this way?
TEXT:
Su Chi, a senior adviser to Mr. Lien and a top KMT official, said in an interview Saturday night that the shooting raised a number of questions that investigators did not have time to answer before the voting took place.
Mr. Su said Mr. Chen, running for elected office in Tainan 18 years ago, appeared at an election-eve rally wheeling an intravenous drip and claiming that he had been poisoned by the KMT, then the governing party. He appeared healthy the next day, Mr. Su said, adding that the charge of poisoning was an election gambit.
The Times’ reasoning is that if Chen practiced kurouji once, he could do it again. It does add a new layer to the intrigue. I never heard of this before. Can anyone refute this claim by Mr Su?
And she bought a full-fare ticket at the China Airlines booth at CKS.