I’m planning to come to Taiwan for PhD and probably stay at least a few years afterwards. How likely is it for the situation to get really serious, i.e military conflict or serious economic sanctions?
Why do you think you need to be worried about China? Are you trolling?
How likely? Do you want a percentage like 20 percent or 80 percent? It’s already 100 percent that China right now has an all out attack on Taiwan to get control.
Anything is possible, but seems like you haven’t done much research yet.
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Yes, China will kill you. Don’t come. 
If you want to worry about something real, then worry about the insane scooter traffic here. Or even the earthquakes. But really, if you’re going to be that faint of heart, maybe you shouldn’t come in the first place.
Lol what? no I’m not trolling. Trust me I did my research, I know a shit ton already but somethings are kinda subjective and English media and “experts” may not have as clear an idea as someone who is living there. Also no I don’t want a percentage but do you think it is likely enough that it should make me think twice before making a long-term decision?
What a silly question to ask a board of ex-pats who have all made long-term decisions to settle in Taiwan.
Here’s your answer:
Anything is possible.
I moved here with my wife last year with plans to stay for several years, even with the lingering threat of China.
Why?
Because even with China spewing out hate and propaganda for nearly 70, it is highly unlikely that they will ever invade.
Taiwan is one of the safest places on Earth, as crazy as that statement may be to some people.
If you want to come here long term, there are thousands of ex-pats who have made that decision and stuck with it. My wife and myself included. We are looking to be here at least 3-5 years, and if it remains safe, possibly forever.
So, as I said: it’s possible, but highly unlikely. Is it worth coming: Yes, I would say so.
Will it happen in a few years?
- Surely
- Probably
- Possibly
- Maybe
- Unlikely
- Never
- I don’t know
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voters
please include “inconceivable” in I don’t know. After 5 min, I cannot edit the poll.
Add “inconceivable”, Vizzini would approve!
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Okay everyone, if you don’t have a bunker membership yet, start shopping!
Unless they decide to start carpet bombing your university campus you will likely be ok. You should be more concerned with getting run over by a scooter or a car.
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The responses on this page are really welcoming. Good job, everyone. I’m sure Aspirant will become a long-term contributing member if he ever heads over there.
For what it’s worth, I think his concern is valid. I don’t agree with the people who think China will never invade; the essential premise of the “China won’t invade Taiwan” outcome is that the Chinese government is a rational player. I don’t think this is 100% true and Xi Jinping’s desire to have a legacy may well lead to invasion - now that he’s “Emperor for life” it doesn’t have the same time limit as before, but if you don’t think it’s a real possibility then you’re basically burying your head in the sand.
Of course, nobody knows when or how soon an invasion will come (and I’d say the key reason we don’t know is precisely because China is not a known quantity), but after nearly twenty years in Taiwan I came to think it was an inevitability and made my exit plans accordingly.
In terms of the economics, I think there’s a fair argument to be made that China’s already squeezing Taiwan. The brain drain to China is real, the job market in Taiwan is pretty dismal and a spiraling cost of living in the midst of rampant wage stagnation means life for the general population isn’t really getting better.
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Fuck the traffic and the earthquakes.
The fact that there are 135 KFCs and only a measly 50 TKK outlets, that’s a REAL problem…
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The invasion does not depend on Taiwan. It depends on China. Look at the recent news: US won’t give more arms to Taiwan because there are way too many Chines spies in the military. Moreover, the top brass and the main economic players and the social elite in Taiwan is loyal to China, which means they will throw Taiwan under the bus when the order is given. And the when the order is given depends on China. We are the proverbial chicken that will be killed to scare the monkey, the monkey being all those provinces in China that can’t stand the weight of the dictatorship on them.
The elite was born in China. They went to the US after the war. For them, the war is over now that they have their money in China. They have no ties with the places they have settled in, including US and Taiwan. They only want to be emperors, which is what Xi has achieved now. Economic power through doninance establushed in a corrupt regime. So what? They are rich. Democracy? Freedom? That interferes with business, as does safety and fair wages. Better have power and do with the workers as they please. So down with Taiwan, down with teh West, down with anyone who ever made fun of them for being Chinese.
I say bring it on. It’ll be a blast. We shall fight them in the night markets etc.