Assuming the typhoon would take at least a few days to get here, it would arrive on the weekend at the earliest, right? I’m planning a trip to Tainan tomorrow and catching the bus back to Taipei on Saturday… is this silly? I just don’t wanna waste my week’s break before heading back to class. Hope the typhoon doesn’t affect road travel too much!
This may be my first typhoon experience! Excite?! :discodance:[/quote]
Typhoons are actually an incredibly boring experience (or terrifying if you’re easily scared). Pretty much you sit in your apt all day listening to the wind howl and the rain pour while watching TV or surfing the internet. It is kind of unbelievable how powerful nature can be but this is only interesting for 10-15 mins. You can also go outside during a typhoon but this is pretty foolish because of the amount of debris being blown around or the possibility that the plants sitting on the edge of the 18th floor balcony get blown off and hit you. Or one of those large signs falls down. Or a tree. Or you get swept away in the waist deep water. Plus it makes a mess of everything and most of us don’t get paid. If I want a day off I would rather take one on a nice sunny day instead.
I’m guessing that it will miss Taiwan but if does hit I’m guessing it would be the eastern side and the rest of the island will just get wind and rain. But it’s really to early to tell.
[quote=“yuli”]
Bummer for Okinawa, too - I’ve just arrived in Ishigaki and if the current forecast does not change significantly all our islands will get drenched .[/quote]
Hey, you’re the lucky one. I get to take my first ever weekend trip to Kyushu and probably won’t be able to return on Sunday night to Naha. Actually, maybe that’s good…
[quote=“urodacus”][quote=“yuli”]
Bummer for Okinawa, too - I’ve just arrived in Ishigaki and if the current forecast does not change significantly all our islands will get drenched .[/quote]
Hey, you’re the lucky one. I get to take my first ever weekend trip to Kyushu and probably won’t be able to return on Sunday night to Naha. Actually, maybe that’s good…[/quote]
If what is awaiting you is your job, maybe it’s better to get an extra vacation?
Talking about lucky: i would have preferred to go back to Hualien on Sunday but will now have to go one or two days later - and if i got the travel agent’s explanation correctly today, replacement flights will be offered at the discretion of the airline, which sounds like it is not possible to coordinate the transfer from one airline to another - i may have to buy another ticket: no fun…
My cousin’s supposed to be landing Saturday evening, if he can get off the ground in London with that ash cloud creeping in. Volcano on one end, typhoon on the other. Lovely.
Icon, curious to hear what information source you use (i’d like to compare data). In comparison, the forecast graph on the page of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests that the typhoon may be speeding up just a little bit (for example, it is now forecast to pass Ishigaki Island on Saturday morning instead of Saturday afternooon): usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R … wp0411.gif
(Indicated times are UTC: add 8hrs for Taiwan, 9hrs for Japan to get the local time)
[quote=“Tempo Gain”]The Japanese are forecasting a greater likelihood of it heading our way, maybe due to that jink to the east it took?
[/quote]
I see - half a day difference in the forecast for the 27th: the reasons for that are explained here: usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R … 11prog.txt
In any case, the Japanese curve is within the probability envelope of the US cvurve and vice versa, so they all can say “we were right” once the storm has passed…
At least all models appear to agree that the typhoon will pass to the east of Taiwan as opposed to crossing the island… that means Taiwan will experience the “weak side” of the storm - that should help keep wind damage down.
Are there predictions for the amount of rainfall to be expected from this storm? In general, can meteorologists predict rainfall from a tropical cyclone the way they can with wind speeds?
Icon, curious to hear what information source you use (I’d like to compare data). In comparison, the forecast graph on the page of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests that the typhoon may be speeding up just a little bit (for example, it is now forecast to pass Ishigaki Island on Saturday morning instead of Saturday afternooon): usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R … wp0411.gif
(Indicated times are UTC: add 8hrs for Taiwan, 9hrs for Japan to get the local time)[/quote]
Why, the local TV news of course. CTI and TVBS, 7am to 8am to be precise, plus recorded bits from CWB’s people.
Thanks… i see (or should i say, i don’t see 'cause i don’t watch TV? ).
But i’ll assume what is easiest to assume, namely that Taiwanese TV companies get their data from the CWB: cwb.gov.tw/eng/typhoon/ty.htm?
(They don’t say which model they use, though.)
Thanks… i see (or should I say, I don’t see 'cause I don’t watch TV? ).
But I’ll assume what is easiest to assume, namely that Taiwanese TV companies get their data from the CWB: cwb.gov.tw/eng/typhoon/ty.htm?
(They don’t say which model they use, though.)[/quote]
Usually, they present the CWB spokesperson -a lady lately- with straight data, then their own weatherperson adds/explains/expands/illustrates the point. Most of it is quite good, actually, lots of satellite/on the ground images.
I watch the news both in the morning and in the evening. They even read the papers’ headlines for you.
(really, their segment is showing the newspaper page and reading the content/making a summary)
That sounds like a decent service, given that there are apparently plenty people in Taiwan who can’t read Mandarin (just met one of them last Saturday at a local tribal meeting: an eloquent public speaker who, unlike the people who spoke before her, used no notes - “she can’t read” i was told).
I’m curious to see whether the different predictions (models) get closer to each other as the typhoon gets closer to Taiwan - the next yupdate to the typhoon forecast map at usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R … wp0411.gif should be out in about 2 hours…
A rainfall prediction for a certain area at this point would be worthless although I’m not a meteorologist. Two big variables are where/if it will make landfall. And if it will stall over the island. And if it stalls you can certainly expect some level of flooding. IIRC Tainan got around 100mm of rain during Fanapi last year while KTown got over 500mm and a spot in KCounty got close to 1000mm of rain.
Mmm, you made a good point there. OTOH, if they mention something I am interested in, since I get all the newspapers at work, I can just look it up when I get to work.
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