I believe that a Russian invasion may open a vacuum of power in the south China sea especially if NATO forces choose to commit to defending the Ukraine. Fighting in the Ukraine could destabilize defense of Taiwan by the west.
What do you think? Could the west engaging with Russia lead to a Chinese invasion?
The problem is that Ukraine doesn’t really mean a whole lot to the whole world except to maybe the EU (they buy gas from Russia)… SCS on the other hand sees 30% of all maritime traffic… that’s pretty significant and the US already committed huge resource to it.
That and nobody cares about Ukraine, as harsh as that sounds. It’s basically some third world country that used to be a part of USSR. Basically only some Eastern European countries may be threatened, possibly Poland.
SCS on the other hand affects not only Taiwan, but a bunch of countries that the world world cares about (and should) due to the amount of trade. If these countries fall, the US is finished.
The other problem is, Ukraine shares a land border with Russia. So all they needed to do is drive tanks over. You can’t just drive tanks over to Taiwan unless you can drive them underwater… or get them into boats. If the boat is a big one, then it needs port facilities for offloading, which won’t happen unless the entire security force of Taiwan is dead. If the boat is small, then it won’t survive the trip because the sea will be too hostile.
No. Not appropriate to compare taking over an island with difficult beach landings vs a land invasion of a neighboring country.
Maybe in a few years, China’s military will have the firepower to seriously threaten an amphibious assault. The world’s reaction to Ukraine is interesting, because if it isn’t firm and quick, it will embolden China’s leaders and future leaders about Taiwan and the SCS.
The other glaring issue is the use of bandwagoning at the end of the article. They say x amount of people say they think china will not invade if Ukraine is invaded. This is a textbook example of the logical fallacy called bandwagoning. A poll of average people in Taiwan is not relevant or accurate in assessing the danger of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The other difference is Taiwan doesn’t have restive province where there are actual paramilitary force with a different allegiance than the country. Whereas seems Ukraine has been dealing with rebels for years before this.
There may be pro China people but they aren’t in armed rebellion.
I think most experts believe China is not invading because there’s just no tension. I mean, when was the last time China actually did anything materially harmful to Taiwan? Like maybe 50 years ago? It’s just not irrational like Russia as a nation, at least hasn’t been for a few decades, and Japan is not useless like Germany.
The only way China would invade is if it becomes as powerful as the US, but that is likely never going to happen. It never hurts to stay vigilant though.
I think that as NATO isn’t involved yet it’s much too early to say.
The two situations are also very different in some ways. Russia’s chief complaint is offering Ukraine membership in NATO, which in strategic terms kind of puts a knife to their throat. No one’s offering Taiwan membership in anything meaningful, and the Western military presence is, in some ways at least, already here.
Also, how invested are countries around Ukraine in its national security? In the case of Taiwan you have Japan and Vietnam, which don’t want to see China’s sphere of influence get any bigger. Are the countries bordering Ukraine as invested (literally and figuratively) in keeping it going?
I think you misunderstood, I’m not comparing Ukraine to Taiwan, I’m saying that a war in Europe increases the viability of invasion from China. I’m not comparing the two countries, but rather talking about vaccines of power and precedents for behavior (so I guess if anything the comparison is between Russia and China)