I believe that a Russian invasion may open a vacuum of power in the south China sea especially if NATO forces choose to commit to defending the Ukraine. Fighting in the Ukraine could destabilize defense of Taiwan by the west.
What do you think? Could the west engaging with Russia lead to a Chinese invasion?
I think that if the West does nothing, it may give our big ugly neighbor the will it needs to force unification.
The problem is that Ukraine doesnât really mean a whole lot to the whole world except to maybe the EU (they buy gas from Russia)⌠SCS on the other hand sees 30% of all maritime traffic⌠thatâs pretty significant and the US already committed huge resource to it.
It is true that the south china sea is a far bigger priority based on the worldâs shipping routes
That and nobody cares about Ukraine, as harsh as that sounds. Itâs basically some third world country that used to be a part of USSR. Basically only some Eastern European countries may be threatened, possibly Poland.
SCS on the other hand affects not only Taiwan, but a bunch of countries that the world world cares about (and should) due to the amount of trade. If these countries fall, the US is finished.
The other problem is, Ukraine shares a land border with Russia. So all they needed to do is drive tanks over. You canât just drive tanks over to Taiwan unless you can drive them underwater⌠or get them into boats. If the boat is a big one, then it needs port facilities for offloading, which wonât happen unless the entire security force of Taiwan is dead. If the boat is small, then it wonât survive the trip because the sea will be too hostile.
No. Not appropriate to compare taking over an island with difficult beach landings vs a land invasion of a neighboring country.
Maybe in a few years, Chinaâs military will have the firepower to seriously threaten an amphibious assault. The worldâs reaction to Ukraine is interesting, because if it isnât firm and quick, it will embolden Chinaâs leaders and future leaders about Taiwan and the SCS.
SighâŚUkraine is not a third world country. Such an outdated term.
Ukraine is not that important to the US and they would be much more likely to defend Taiwan if it came down to that.
âgo afterâ is not the same as âinvadeâ
wtf
why couldnât they just have the same headline but with instead of âinvadeâ put âgo afterâ like he said
The other glaring issue is the use of bandwagoning at the end of the article. They say x amount of people say they think china will not invade if Ukraine is invaded. This is a textbook example of the logical fallacy called bandwagoning. A poll of average people in Taiwan is not relevant or accurate in assessing the danger of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The other difference is Taiwan doesnât have restive province where there are actual paramilitary force with a different allegiance than the country. Whereas seems Ukraine has been dealing with rebels for years before this.
There may be pro China people but they arenât in armed rebellion.
And they are all like, 112.
I think most experts believe China is not invading because thereâs just no tension. I mean, when was the last time China actually did anything materially harmful to Taiwan? Like maybe 50 years ago? Itâs just not irrational like Russia as a nation, at least hasnât been for a few decades, and Japan is not useless like Germany.
The only way China would invade is if it becomes as powerful as the US, but that is likely never going to happen. It never hurts to stay vigilant though.
I see the similarities, but not enough of them.
The way I see it.
Not so sure about that. Theyâve had access for quite some time now.
https://www.aspi.org.au/report/taking-low-road-chinas-influence-australian-states-and-territories
At some point theyâll even believe their own bullshit.
I think that as NATO isnât involved yet itâs much too early to say.
The two situations are also very different in some ways. Russiaâs chief complaint is offering Ukraine membership in NATO, which in strategic terms kind of puts a knife to their throat. No oneâs offering Taiwan membership in anything meaningful, and the Western military presence is, in some ways at least, already here.
Also, how invested are countries around Ukraine in its national security? In the case of Taiwan you have Japan and Vietnam, which donât want to see Chinaâs sphere of influence get any bigger. Are the countries bordering Ukraine as invested (literally and figuratively) in keeping it going?
I think you misunderstood, Iâm not comparing Ukraine to Taiwan, Iâm saying that a war in Europe increases the viability of invasion from China. Iâm not comparing the two countries, but rather talking about vaccines of power and precedents for behavior (so I guess if anything the comparison is between Russia and China)
