Nathan Batto at the awesome Frozen Garlic site calls Tsai’s return from the abyss one of the most astounding political comebacks (from the problems she faced in her first term) he’s ever seen. This is what he wrote after the recent recalls / byelection in Taichung 2:
Tsai is probably the most popular president going into local elections in nearly 30 years. We really don’t know what this will mean, since the last time this happened Taiwan was still in the early years of the democratic system. DPP chair Hsu Hsin-liang 許信良 went into the 1993 elections asking voters to give the DPP a mandate by surrounding the central government 以地方包圍中央; since Taiwan had never had a national election and polling was still developing, we didn’t know if that was a reasonable demand. Hsu was sorely disappointed; the KMT did really well in 1993 and 1994. But that was such a different world; it’s probably not a great precedent to understand what just happened or what will unfold over the next year.
Tsai’s popularity has almost certainly been the crucial factor in the recent referendums, recalls, and by-elections. The fightin’ KMT is behaving as an angry electorate wants to send her a message. That is usually a good assumption. In normal years, there probably would have been enough anger to pass the referendums, recall Freddy Lim and Chen Po-wei, and replace them with KMT members. This hasn’t been a normal year, though. Tsai’s resurgence in 2019 was one of the most astounding political reversals I have ever seen. Her ability to maintain that popularity over the past two years has been only slightly less impressive.
The KMT has a lot of advantages going into the local elections. They have lots of popular candidates, and the open seats are pretty favorable. If they can make this a calm election about individual candidates and local issues, they should do pretty well. The worst thing they could do is keep using the fightin’ blue strategy, screaming about how terrible the DPP is and the need to send President Tsai a message. Unless her popularity suddenly tanks, they might find once again that, if it is a choice between Tsai and the KMT, voters still prefer Tsai.
Meanwhile, C Donovan Smith continues his series of articles tracing Tsai’s career, this time tracking her moves during the tumultuous Ma presidency when the DPP remained in opposition:
With Premier Su stepping down, former VP Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) will reportedly step in as the Premier for the last year the Tsai administration before the January 2024 elections. I have no idea how he will fare in this role, especially given the limited time frame of his appointment, but I do know he is viewed in pan-green circles as a man with integrity.
And yet, still sadly much more preferable to the blue side of the aisle. It is temp, the goal for the DPP is simply dont fuck up. Everyone knows the views, Chinese KMT is worse, just dont give them ammo in this last stretch. The next election could (obviously WILL) be really horrible for Taiwan if they let it go blue.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. That’s what democracy and an open society is all about.
I’m curious to know what you wish the new government would / should do after Tsai is out of the president’s office? What are the priorities that matter to you?
My personal impression is that she was one of those people who was dropped into the job by wider circumstance. As far as I can tell she was no leader - she was quite literally told what to do by others (mostly men). Her job, such as it was, didn’t extend much beyond popping up on TV with a cat in tow, and repeating whatever blandishments she’d been told to say by her handlers. We’ve seen quite a lot of heads-of-state like that these days. A lot of them are still in “power”.
As for who might come next, I don’t think it even matters anymore. Tsai was the figurehead of a hopelessly corrupt, dishonest, and ineffective administration. She allowed a problem that had almost been knocked on the head - capture of State machinery by big business and the greasing of palms - to make a roaring comeback. That’s not going to bode well for the future. Inevitably, whoever follows will have been pushed into position by vested interests.
I am not sure if I posted before in this thread. But I will be the first to admit I quite disliked Tsai in the beginning. Like, really disliked her! Even when she lost against ma, I quite disliked her and i fucking despise Ma! But I am proud to have been proven wrong and can now call her a decent president despite my previous bias. Importantly, she proved herself through actual results, not just lip service.
Still loads to improve, but again…as far as taiwanese presidents go, one of the best! I am man enough to admit I was wrong about her before. Now I only worry the next run we are probably going to get someone with NO WHERE near the balls this cat lady has expressed!
