Peloton has been my biggest winner.
Peloton Interactive shares have gotten a pandemic boost, rising about 13% for the year through Friday, as the homebound search for workout options other than gyms and health clubs.
The companyâs March quarter earnings, due after the close of trading Wednesday, will provide some fresh data on how the seller of high-end connected stationary bikes has fared in the current downturn. Wall Street is clearly feeling optimistic .
Before the onset of the pandemic, Peloton (ticker: PTON) forecast revenue for the quarter of $470 million to $480 million, a range whose midpoint is about 50% above the year-earlier figure. The company predicted an adjusted loss of $25 million to $35 million in terms of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and 843,000 to 848,000 subscribers.
Wall Street thinks the revenue estimates are too low. The consensus forecast is $487 million in revenue, and projections run as high as $525 million. The Street expects a loss for the quarter of 17 cents a share.
For the June 2020 fiscal year, Peloton has projected revenue of $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion, an adjusted Ebitda loss of $95 million to $115 million, and 920,000 to 930,000 paid subscribers. The Street consensus for the fiscal year is for revenues of $1.56 billion and a loss of $1.03 a share.
For the June quarter, analysts expect revenue of $380.3 million with a loss of 20 cents a share.
On Monday, MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni repeated his Neutral rating and $28 price target on the stock. Shares were up 4.9% to $33.62 in afternoon trading.
The coronavirus crisis, which has forced the temporary closing of many places where people work out, has pulled forward demand from future quarters, he said.
Kulkari added that âseveral recent developments add to potential volatility and range of outcomes at Peloton: store and studio closures, 90-day free trials of digital-only offerings, delayed and/or canceled bike shipments, and the economic impact of settlement of recent lawsuits [the company in the quarter settled disputes with both the National Music Publishers Association and with Flywheel Sports].â
He also noted that the last two earnings reports turned into short- term âsell the newsâ events for Peloton shares.
JMP Securities analyst Ronald Josey is more upbeat on the outlook. Last week, he repeated his Market Outperform rating, lifting his price target to $43, from $41.
He said âengagement and demand for Peloton are accelerating,â based on his own tracking of Peloton classes, extended shipment times for new orders, app downloads, and other factors.
âWith stay-at-home orders across most of the country and most gyms and studios closed, we believe Peloton is seeing an acceleration of longer-term tailwinds as consumers adopt more home-fitness solutions,â he wrote. âOur engagement analysis, rise in app store rankings, and extended delivery times - now at 8+ weeks for guaranteed delivery - highlights greater overall engagement ⌠with Pelotonâs 30-day home trial and flexible financing options - making Peloton less expensive than many gyms and studios - we believe the company can continue to benefit from this surge in demand.â
Sell now 
once people get out lockdown they will go to gyms and get bored of that.
Sound like my wife.
âHoney, the blahblahblah stock just popped. We made 2k today on that one alone! whoohoo!â
âSell!â
1 Like
I think they will continue to sell well to a certain target demographic. The people that I see get it are young professionals in their 20-30s who have come into some money working in the cities. Their 60+ hour week makes going to the gym a hassle. They also have a rowing machine coming and a treadmill. I think this is the future of gym going.
Sell Peloton, buy Disney 
2 Likes
I just feel that peloton is the way forward and the market will continue to grow. It might slow down from the increase it sees now, but I think they have the right business model for fitness moving forward. Lots of young professionals in cities coming into money but work 60+ hours a week will gravitate towards this instead of the effort of going to the gym before and after work.
I might pick up Disney, but Iâm not liking the way theyâre treating their employees during this. Itâs kind of BS. And they also ruined Star Wars haha. I just hate everything they touch now.
Now I feel less ridiculous for buying Disney in late March 
I Might buy some Disney, diversified entertainment giant now strongly moving into streaming. Donât like what they did to their employees either though .
Holy ebbs and flows, Batman!
Pelotonâs share price plunged more than 75% in 2021, and the company hasnât fared much better so far this year. The stock is down nearly 25% and trading at its lowest level in nearly two years.
There is something seriously wrong when a stock goes down because an actor has a fake heart attack using one of the companyâs products. Knowing that this could happen, the production company should probably be investigated for intentionally influencing the stock market? This could easily become common for a whole range of products, negative advertising secretly sponsored by competitors.
If that is OK, expect a lot of crashes by self-driving vehicles on the silver screen in the future.
2 Likes
I think the plunge after the tv shows is it just got peopleâs attention again - oh, peloton is still a thing? Then they look at the stock, realize itâs a dog, make some predictions on covid, etc⌠(Similarly, the Neil Young bruhaha got me looking at spot (but pass, even to pick up an oversold bounce).)
I still have a few holders from last summer and the one before. The EV battery stock has been crushed. Coin smashed. AMC crushed badly. The change the economy to a green economy stuff is really not doing well.
Of the things you just mentioned, only one of them can be considered âgreenâ. Bitcoin, et al are pretty much as ânot greenâ as they come. AMC is meh
Ah, I hold more EV related stocks than just the battery one.
Iâve had to liquidate most of my holdings as UK has a HMRC list of approved equities for me to not get double taxed.
So itâs literally like basic ETFs now. Iâm also no longer managing it myself, just donât have time to keep up with the market.
1 Like
Just read the beginning of this thread after recently refinding it; maybe a better place for this than the good diversification ideas thread I was going to put this in. 
So whatâs everyoneâs portfolio looking like going into 2023?
My play account is where I keep individual stocks (along with a smattering of SPY and some unallocated cash), and has my (current) core positions of XOM, BA, BABA, F, (and recently) GOOGL. Had a big position in COIN thatâs not so big anymore. Have JPM as well, and a have a few flyers out on BTEGF, CYXT, and SNAP. Waiting for the fed rate increases to stop, then see what direction the market looks to be heading at that point; if market looks robust at that point, Iâll be looking to move SPY and unallocated cash into SPXL.
My serious buy and hold retirement account is much more boring - 65% S&P / large cap, 15% target date fund (with an artificially close retirement date for bond exposure), 10% small cap, and 10% global.
As an aside, this is the first time Iâve seen @Noelâs portfolio laid out; I know from one of his other threads he converted a defined pension plan to a cash-out, but I donât know whether to be worried for him or admire his giant huevos for retiring early with a portfolio of that size.
Oil, manufacturing, a little financial.
What are you looking at in âmanufacturingâ? - thatâs seriously broad.
Biggest positions at the moment are MOD and TEX. Both doing nicely so far this year.