It is a possible scenario within the realm of probable.
If China started to strategically strike targets of significance through missile and bomb strikes, and leaving Taiwan is off the plate of possibilities, where would you take your family for safety?
stay at home
stay at home, but head to the basement
stay at home and head to the roof to watch the show
go to a designated shelter
get out of the big cities and head for the mountains
head to AIT (if American) or any other de facto embassy
other (please explain)
I really am curious where the safest place would be for Taipei and New Taipei residents. There are so many strategically important and some hard targets in and around soft targets making missed shots huge possibilities for civilian causalities.
Have any of you been in a city during a missile or bombing strike? Would love to hear your survival stories.
I would collect some rations for myself and family that can last for a while. Put together a ‘go’ bag with some essentials (documents, cash, medicine, etc.), anything you consider important for survival. And follow instructions on where to go for shelter.
And hope the whole thing won’t last too long.
I wouldn’t think it would last that long. One or two days and I think the island would capitulate. But it only takes a couple stray missiles or bombs to cause a lot of horror. I wouldn’t put it past China taking a few stray shots just to strike fear and cause chaos. And just how safe are those designated shelters? Most are parking garages. Can’t imagine being stuck in a parking garage with no power for a day or two with children.
You definitely got a point regarding the safety evaluation of designated shelter. But in case of a war, no one can really know what can happen. I chose to put my faith in that someone in the system did a good job evaluating where might be relatively safer to go in case of war. And from there, I would observe and see if things makes sense to decide if I should stay in the shelter or to head out on my own to other locations I believe to be safer.
But in Taipei, there are a lot of underground facilities that can work as a bomb shelter. Some MRT stations are pretty deep underground. And those will be convincing if they told me to go there.
One or two days? You think the government is just going to hand it over? If they want it, make them pay! Taiwan has a real chance of collapsing the Communist Party. They don’t seem to know what shooting your biggest customers causes trade to dry up. The same trade they ever so rely on to stay in power.
Well, one day or two will be nice. But instead of Taiwan surrendering, I was hoping that the communist party implode from other factors (power struggle in the party, regions rising to fight communists, international pressure, or even Taiwan kicking the ass of the communist party).
But realistically speaking, I am looking at maybe a few months as a short war timeframe if things really boil down to a war between Taiwan and PRC.
Is this the kind of thing you find amusing? Is this the kind of thing you like to think about on a daily basis? I don’t know about you, but I find the possibility of friends and family getting bombed horrifying. Not trying to be a social justice warrior here, just tired of the topic popping up on this forum.
To each their own I guess. But have no interest in participating in this kind of poll, especially if you’d “love” to hear my survival stories.
It makes sense. One of China’s largest export markets is Taiwan. Taiwan has enough clout to cause the economy to go from 6% growth to negative. Having millions of job losses plus a contraction would be a disaster.
It’s never happening. China doesn’t want that. There’s nothing to gain, but a lot to lose. China is just going to diplomatically isolate Taiwan until a party leader is elected that agrees to their 2 systems, 1 country agreement, and then China slow-walks Taiwan into a Hong Kong-esque situation over the ensuing 30 or 40 years. They don’t mind waiting if they know it’ll eventually be theirs.
Taiwan is China’s 11th biggest export market as of 2018:
Taiwan: $48.7 billion (2%)
Would the other markets drop China if it took Taiwan? Who knows.
There won’t be a hot war anyway. China will continue to poach Taiwanese talent, use trade and soft power to take Taiwan. I’ve had this discussion here before but I’m in the realistic/pessimistic camp regarding T’s future. Young people here don’t call it the Ghost Island for nothing.